Bartosz Kwodawski vs Marcin Kowalczyk 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite Series

Played Oct 5Finished

Bartosz Kwodawski

Home

1.71

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 2

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

116711211117114

Marcin Kowalczyk

Away

2.00

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Bartosz Kwodawski to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is going

Point-by-point unavailable

BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.

81 points played in total.

Set by set

116711211117114

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 20:28

54.0%Our read58.5%to break even at 1.71

short by 4.5pp

58.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.71 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.71 (54%)

Kwodawski

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Kwodawski 1299 vs Kowalczyk 1268

Kwodawski

Correct

both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kwodawski 40% vs Kowalczyk 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kwodawski 30% vs Kowalczyk 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Kwodawski +2 · Kowalczyk +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kwodawski) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kwodawski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKwodawski 1.71 / Kowalczyk 2.00

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Kwodawski)-4.5pp (anti-value)

TT Elite Series · #13251092

Kwodawski1.71

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite62% won 28 of 45

Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21

Up 1–0, closes it86% 24 of 28

Kowalczyk2.00

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog43% won 140 of 327

Down 0–1, comes back22% 37 of 165

Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 77

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricKwodawskiKowalczykBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 444 vs 730 / 148342.6%49.2%189 / 444 vs 730 / 1483Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

Forecastthe model predicts this market

Match Winner

Kwodawski

Kwodawski 1.71/Kowalczyk 2.00

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Kwodawski · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Kwodawski won

Handicap · Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

B. Kwodawski10