TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Kowalczyk vs Kuba Golaszewski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181113115117––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:13 and never touched: 65.8% is still 65.8%
Graded at full timeMarcin Kowalczyk to win
65.8%
65.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1181113115117––
H2H Marcin Kowalczyk 42–32 Kuba Golaszewski Kuba Golaszewski has won 32 of their 74 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Golaszewski beat Kowalczyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:1365.8%Our read69.9%to break even at 1.43
short by 4.1pp69.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.43 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.43 (65%)
Kowalczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
42-32 in 74
Kowalczyk
Correct
gap of 10 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalczyk 1247 vs Golaszewski 1203
Kowalczyk
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalczyk 20% vs Golaszewski 40%
Golaszewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalczyk 30% vs Golaszewski 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalczyk -2 · Golaszewski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Kowalczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalczyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalczyk 1.43 / Golaszewski 2.65
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Kowalczyk)-4.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13251363
Kowalczyk1.43
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 88 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it73% 77 of 105
Golaszewski2.65
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 166 of 403
Down 0–1, comes back19% 40 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowalczyk5wins
AwayGolaszewski5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalczyk100%4 of 4
AwayGolaszewski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalczyk4Golaszewski6n = 10Golaszewski took 6 of 10
S2Kowalczyk6Golaszewski4n = 10Kowalczyk took 6 of 10
S3Kowalczyk6Golaszewski4n = 10Kowalczyk took 6 of 10
S4Kowalczyk2Golaszewski3n = 5Golaszewski took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalczykGolaszewskiK − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.333.6+2.7per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalczykGolaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime730 / 1485 vs 421 / 100149.2%42.1%730 / 1485 vs 421 / 1001Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KowalczykKowalczyk 1.43/Golaszewski 2.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.8%
Kowalczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kowalczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 16:55M. Kowalczyk4281113101K. Golaszewski3911115123
WSep 17 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk331111113K. Golaszewski204970
LSep 15 · 23:45M. Kowalczyk47781111102K. Golaszewski45111129123
WSep 3 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk47811116113K. Golaszewski4811981192
WAug 21 · 00:10M. Kowalczyk331111113K. Golaszewski196670
LAug 20 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk2458110K. Golaszewski351111133
LAug 12 · 22:15M. Kowalczyk351071171K. Golaszewski4012116113
WAug 12 · 16:55M. Kowalczyk44111111113K. Golaszewski34771371
WAug 10 · 22:15M. Kowalczyk331111113K. Golaszewski217950
LAug 10 · 16:55M. Kowalczyk2561180K. Golaszewski351113113
M. Kowalczyk10
LOct 5 · 23:20B. Kwodawski1.871111113M. Kowalczyk1.839750LOct 5 · 22:35J. Przewlocki1.7811118113M. Kowalczyk1.93571141LOct 5 · 21:05K. Sulkowski1.7171112113M. Kowalczyk2.001181061LOct 5 · 20:30B. Kwodawski1.71117211113M. Kowalczyk2.0061111742WOct 5 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk1.8111711113K. Sulkowski1.90511951LOct 5 · 18:10P. Strus1.80312511113M. Kowalczyk1.86111011672LOct 5 · 16:55K. Golaszewski2.1011115123M. Kowalczyk1.6081113101WOct 5 · 15:25J. Przewlocki1.74871111142M. Kowalczyk1.95111169163LOct 1 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.956570D. Wrobel1.751111113LOct 1 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk2.107690J. Lamperski1.661111113
K. Golaszewski10
LOct 6 · 22:55K. Golaszewski2.60511841A. Myszewski1.4211711113WOct 6 · 21:05K. Golaszewski1.7211811113J. Rolak2.00911681LOct 6 · 20:05B. Mrugala1.5211128113K. Golaszewski2.309101191LOct 6 · 19:20J. Rolak1.981111113K. Golaszewski1.736850LOct 6 · 17:20A. Myszewski1.471111113K. Golaszewski2.409520LOct 6 · 16:35D. Szlubowski1.47118711113K. Golaszewski2.4031111772LOct 6 · 15:00M. Skorski1.6541111133K. Golaszewski2.051157111WOct 6 · 00:35J. Przewlocki1.859811151K. Golaszewski1.8511112173WOct 5 · 22:55K. Sulkowski1.65119111142K. Golaszewski2.05131188113WOct 5 · 16:55K. Golaszewski2.1011115123M. Kowalczyk1.6081113101
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