TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartosz Kwodawski vs Jacek Przewlocki 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112116114––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeBartosz Kwodawski to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
45 points played in total.
Set by set
112116114––––
H2H Bartosz Kwodawski 6–2 Jacek Przewlocki Jacek Przewlocki has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Przewlocki beat Kwodawski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:5356.5%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 4.1pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Kwodawski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Kwodawski
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwodawski 1321 vs Przewlocki 1242
Kwodawski
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwodawski 80% vs Przewlocki 60%
Kwodawski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwodawski 50% vs Przewlocki 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwodawski +4 · Przewlocki +1
Kwodawski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Kwodawski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Przewlocki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwodawski 1.65 / Przewlocki 2.05
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Kwodawski)-4.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13251345
Kwodawski1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 28 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Przewlocki2.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 78 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back19% 19 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKwodawski6wins
AwayPrzewlocki2wins
2 of 8 to a deciderKwodawski leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwodawski75%3 of 4
AwayPrzewlocki25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwodawski4Przewlocki4n = 8split evenly
S2Kwodawski6Przewlocki2n = 8Kwodawski took 6 of 8
S3Kwodawski3Przewlocki5n = 8Przewlocki took 5 of 8
S4Kwodawski4Przewlocki2n = 6Kwodawski took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricKwodawskiPrzewlockiK − PBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match38.235.8+2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwodawskiPrzewlockiBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 446 vs 514 / 106442.8%48.3%191 / 446 vs 514 / 1064Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KwodawskiKwodawski 1.65/Przewlocki 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Kwodawski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kwodawski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 5 · 16:15B. Kwodawski351110771J. Przewlocki4391211113
WSep 5 · 14:35B. Kwodawski3851111113J. Przewlocki36119881
WAug 22 · 09:00B. Kwodawski46711611113J. Przewlocki4011511852
WAug 1 · 10:35B. Kwodawski45111110133J. Przewlocki386912111
WJun 27 · 10:10B. Kwodawski331111113J. Przewlocki179620
LJan 31 · 11:35B. Kwodawski155550J. Przewlocki331111113
WJun 25 · 12:40B. Kwodawski44111111113J. Przewlocki34971351
WMar 11 · 10:00B. Kwodawski50712119113J. Przewlocki45111061172
B. Kwodawski10
LOct 6 · 00:10B. Kwodawski1.7581111972K. Sulkowski1.98114511113WOct 5 · 23:20B. Kwodawski1.871111113M. Kowalczyk1.839750WOct 5 · 21:30B. Kwodawski1.551111113K. Golaszewski2.309650WOct 5 · 20:30B. Kwodawski1.71117211113M. Kowalczyk2.0061111742WOct 5 · 18:55B. Kwodawski1.5711911113P. Strus2.27811941WOct 5 · 17:45B. Kwodawski1.571111113K. Golaszewski2.204680LOct 5 · 16:15B. Kwodawski1.801110771J. Przewlocki1.9191211113LOct 5 · 15:00B. Kwodawski1.80771471K. Sulkowski1.90111112113LSep 29 · 00:10J. Glanowski1.6711118113B. Kwodawski2.10951151LSep 28 · 23:45B. Kwodawski2.63912101172J. Nadolny1.441110129113
J. Przewlocki10
LOct 6 · 00:35J. Przewlocki1.859811151K. Golaszewski1.8511112173LOct 5 · 23:45K. Sulkowski1.65114812113J. Przewlocki2.10711111072WOct 5 · 22:35J. Przewlocki1.7811118113M. Kowalczyk1.93571141WOct 5 · 19:40J. Przewlocki1.71115119113P. Strus2.0081141162LOct 5 · 18:30J. Przewlocki1.806101171K. Golaszewski1.9011127113WOct 5 · 17:20J. Przewlocki1.99111211113K. Sulkowski1.744101361WOct 5 · 16:15B. Kwodawski1.801110771J. Przewlocki1.9191211113LOct 5 · 15:25J. Przewlocki1.74871111142M. Kowalczyk1.95111169163LOct 2 · 13:55B. Warpas1.8516711113J. Przewlocki1.851411941LOct 2 · 13:05F. Krcil1.601011112123J. Przewlocki2.15129511102
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