TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartosz Kwodawski vs Karol Sulkowski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7117111412711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:48 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartosz Kwodawski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
7117111412711––
H2H Bartosz Kwodawski 1–6 Karol Sulkowski Bartosz Kwodawski has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:4854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kwodawski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Sulkowski
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwodawski 1303 vs Sulkowski 1308
Sulkowski
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwodawski 20% vs Sulkowski 40%
Sulkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwodawski 20% vs Sulkowski 50%
Sulkowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwodawski -2 · Sulkowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kwodawski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwodawski 1.80 / Sulkowski 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kwodawski)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13246356
Kwodawski1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 29) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 28 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Sulkowski1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 138 of 389
Down 0–1, comes back16% 37 of 238
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKwodawski1wins
AwaySulkowski6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSulkowski leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwodawski33.3%1 of 3
AwaySulkowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwodawski3Sulkowski4n = 7Sulkowski took 4 of 7
S2Kwodawski1Sulkowski6n = 7Sulkowski took 6 of 7
S3Kwodawski2Sulkowski5n = 7Sulkowski took 5 of 7
S4Kwodawski1Sulkowski4n = 5Sulkowski took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricKwodawskiSulkowskiK − SBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match32.339.3−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwodawskiSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 450 vs 649 / 131842.4%49.2%191 / 450 vs 649 / 1318Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KwodawskiKwodawski 1.80/Sulkowski 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kwodawski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJun 15 · 14:40B. Kwodawski3811731162K. Sulkowski41511113113
LJun 11 · 09:50B. Kwodawski165650K. Sulkowski331111113
LMar 21 · 12:05B. Kwodawski368611111K. Sulkowski4211117133
WMar 15 · 14:35B. Kwodawski45111193113K. Sulkowski4388111152
LFeb 14 · 16:55B. Kwodawski187920K. Sulkowski331111113
LJan 17 · 11:35B. Kwodawski37991181K. Sulkowski4111118113
LDec 30 · 17:35B. Kwodawski36118981K. Sulkowski4291111113
B. Kwodawski10
LOct 5 · 16:15B. Kwodawski1.801110771J. Przewlocki1.9191211113LSep 29 · 00:10J. Glanowski1.6711118113B. Kwodawski2.10951151LSep 28 · 23:45B. Kwodawski2.63912101172J. Nadolny1.441110129113WSep 28 · 22:55B. Kwodawski2.1012119113K. Rudomina1.671061191LSep 28 · 21:00B. Kwodawski5.756540J. Mitas1.121111113LSep 28 · 20:05K. Rudomina1.73111196113B. Kwodawski2.0074111162LSep 28 · 19:15J. Glanowski1.57111169113B. Kwodawski2.2554111182LSep 28 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.25118911113B. Kwodawski3.7551111552LSep 28 · 16:28J. Nadolny1.44186118113B. Kwodawski2.63161191172LSep 28 · 15:00J. Mitas1.4011911113B. Kwodawski2.75511751
K. Sulkowski10
LOct 5 · 16:35P. Strus1.981111113K. Sulkowski1.757940LOct 5 · 00:35A. Linek1.511112113K. Sulkowski2.4071090LOct 4 · 22:55J. Glanowski1.4111116113K. Sulkowski2.60571171WOct 4 · 22:15K. Rudomina1.50691311102K. Sulkowski2.401111118123LOct 4 · 21:30R. Stapor1.46111011113K. Sulkowski2.40712471WOct 4 · 19:40M. Kukawka1.36113571K. Sulkowski2.8581111113LOct 4 · 18:55K. Rudomina1.251111123K. Sulkowski3.4097100LOct 4 · 18:10K. Sulkowski2.909760R. Stapor1.371111113WOct 4 · 16:35K. Sulkowski1.91178611113J. Glanowski1.80151111582WOct 4 · 15:50A. Linek2.2161171242K. Sulkowski1.601141110113
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