TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Kotiash vs Oleksandr Leonenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6116111210114118
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:27 and never touched: 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotiash to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Oleksandr Leonenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Andrii Kotiash at 58.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 11–4 Oleksandr Leonenko Oleksandr Leonenko has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2758.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 7.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kotiash
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-4 in 15
Kotiash
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1413 vs Leonenko 1527
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 20% vs Leonenko 80%
Leonenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 30% vs Leonenko 80%
Leonenko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash -1 · Leonenko +3
Leonenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Kotiash) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 1.533 / Leonenko 2.375
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kotiash)-7.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250703
Kotiash1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 30 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Leonenko2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 74 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back24% 21 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotiash8wins
AwayLeonenko2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKotiash leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotiash85.7%6 of 7
AwayLeonenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash7Leonenko3n = 10Kotiash took 7 of 10
S2Kotiash7Leonenko3n = 10Kotiash took 7 of 10
S3Kotiash6Leonenko4n = 10Kotiash took 6 of 10
S4Kotiash5Leonenko3n = 8Kotiash took 5 of 8
S5Kotiash2Leonenko1n = 3Kotiash took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotiashLeonenkoK − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.135.1+5.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashLeonenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 462 vs 422 / 82146.3%51.4%214 / 462 vs 422 / 821Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KotiashKotiash 1.53/Leonenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Kotiash · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kotiash won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 24 · 18:20A. Kotiash50111288113O. Leonenko44510111172
WMar 26 · 11:20A. Kotiash4371111143O. Leonenko321118121
WFeb 1 · 20:20A. Kotiash3811115113O. Leonenko29371181
LJan 29 · 12:50A. Kotiash4391112832O. Leonenko521191011113
LDec 7 · 19:20A. Kotiash33116971O. Leonenko4181111113
WNov 20 · 08:20A. Kotiash44471111113O. Leonenko4111118742
WNov 19 · 17:50A. Kotiash4211514123O. Leonenko4291112101
WApr 1 · 12:05A. Kotiash331111113O. Leonenko246990
WMar 28 · 21:20A. Kotiash4211146113O. Leonenko332121181
WMar 25 · 13:05A. Kotiash331111113O. Leonenko137240
A. Kotiash10
WOct 6 · 07:00I. Emets1.918660A. Kotiash1.801111113LOct 4 · 10:55A. Kotiash3.008940D. Palii1.361111113WOct 4 · 08:55V. Kuzmych1.5374110A. Kotiash2.381111133LOct 4 · 07:55A. Kotiash2.2546111362I. Fashchevskyi1.581111611113LOct 4 · 06:55O. Gazhula1.61111116113A. Kotiash2.20861841LOct 4 · 05:25A. Kotiash2.0066111142M. Slozka1.73111189113LOct 3 · 18:55D. Palii1.40861111103A. Kotiash2.7511113682LOct 3 · 17:25A. Kotiash2.258690I. Fashchevskyi1.571111113WOct 3 · 15:25M. Slozka1.509511111A. Kotiash2.5011119123WOct 3 · 13:25O. Gazhula1.5361161152A. Kotiash2.38118114113
O. Leonenko10
LOct 6 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.911111113O. Leonenko1.809880LOct 6 · 06:30O. Leonenko2.105240O. Volynets1.671111113WOct 5 · 11:00O. Leonenko1.5712118123E. Populovskyi2.2510911101WOct 5 · 09:00O. Volynets1.4471090O. Leonenko2.631112113WOct 5 · 08:00O. Leonenko2.20511116153S. Solomko1.61116911132LOct 5 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov1.368111011113O. Leonenko3.0011412992WOct 5 · 05:30O. Leonenko1.73111312113A. Kovalenko2.007151061WOct 3 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.2015511113S. Solomko1.611311681WOct 3 · 16:30O. Osadchyi1.731110891O. Leonenko2.0061211113WOct 3 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.00111132103E. Populovskyi1.7347111162
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.