TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Melichar vs Jan Hendrych 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115119117––––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Melichar to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Melichar above · Jan Hendrych below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Jiri Melichar at 59.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Melichar 3–2 Jan Hendrych Jan Hendrych has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3959.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Melichar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melichar 1517 vs Hendrych 1430
Melichar
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melichar 60% vs Hendrych 0%
Melichar
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melichar 50% vs Hendrych 10%
Melichar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melichar -1 · Hendrych -5
Hendrych
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Melichar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hendrych form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelichar 1.666 / Hendrych 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Melichar)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13247682
Melichar1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 20 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 12 of 17
Hendrych2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 54 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back25% 15 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMelichar3wins
AwayHendrych2wins
Melichar leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelicharn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHendrych66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melichar2Hendrych3n = 5Hendrych took 3 of 5
S2Melichar3Hendrych2n = 5Melichar took 3 of 5
S3Melichar2Hendrych3n = 5Hendrych took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricMelicharHendrychM − HBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match32.630.6+2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelicharHendrychBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 76 vs 260 / 51656.6%50.4%43 / 76 vs 260 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelicharMelichar 1.67/Hendrych 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Melichar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melichar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 31 · 16:25J. Melichar43111110113J. Hendrych29571251
LAug 17 · 16:25J. Melichar247980J. Hendrych331111113
WJun 29 · 16:20J. Melichar401118113J. Hendrych3061680
WJul 15 · 14:40J. Melichar4181111113J. Hendrych28117371
LJan 19 · 13:55J. Melichar156270J. Hendrych331111113
J. Melichar10
LOct 5 · 16:20D. Sykora2.1051111113J. Melichar1.67115931WOct 5 · 15:50Z. Zahradka2.5010840J. Melichar1.501211113LOct 2 · 17:50J. Melichar1.6013811942D. Sykora2.201111711113WOct 2 · 16:20A. Kral2.255111081J. Melichar1.5711712113WOct 2 · 15:50D. Sykora1.91781161J. Melichar1.8011115113WOct 2 · 14:50J. Melichar2.1091111113J. Dvorak1.67119681LSep 28 · 18:40J. Kulveit1.8311114113J. Melichar1.83591161LSep 28 · 16:55O. Varecka2.00411117113J. Melichar1.7311821172LSep 28 · 16:25J. Kulveit2.1011119113J. Melichar1.67651181WSep 28 · 15:25J. Melichar1.441212113R. Jamrich2.63101080
J. Hendrych10
LOct 5 · 17:30J. Hendrych—53100Z. Zahradka—1111123WOct 5 · 16:50J. Hendrych2.50121177113Z. Zahradka1.50109111182LOct 5 · 15:20D. Sykora1.91111213153J. Hendrych1.8091015131LOct 2 · 18:06Z. Zahradka1.571111113J. Hendrych2.258240LOct 2 · 16:55Z. Zahradka1.8011411113J. Hendrych1.91811351LOct 2 · 16:25M. Dvorak1.831111113J. Hendrych1.837570LOct 2 · 15:25J. Hendrych1.8311871152P. Moravec1.83811118113LSep 30 · 22:03J. Hendrych2.2048111162J. Hrncir1.61111179113WSep 30 · 20:55J. Hrncir1.5779111152J. Hendrych2.25111196113LSep 30 · 20:25M. Sulc1.401281111113J. Hendrych2.7514119582
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