TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Hendrych vs Petr Moravec 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118811711118511
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Hendrych to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Hendrych above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 91 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Jan Hendrych at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Hendrych 16–13 Petr Moravec Petr Moravec has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-13 in 29
Hendrych
Wrong
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hendrych 1484 vs Moravec 1506
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hendrych 20% vs Moravec 80%
Moravec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hendrych 30% vs Moravec 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hendrych -1 · Moravec +3
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hendrych) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHendrych 1.833 / Moravec 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hendrych)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13231887
Hendrych1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Moravec1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 25) · back after a break
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHendrych5wins
AwayMoravec5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHendrych75%3 of 4
AwayMoravec66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hendrych4Moravec6n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S2Hendrych6Moravec4n = 10Hendrych took 6 of 10
S3Hendrych3Moravec7n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S4Hendrych5Moravec3n = 8Hendrych took 5 of 8
S5Hendrych2Moravec1n = 3Hendrych took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHendrychMoravecH − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.040.5−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHendrychMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 516 vs 114 / 22550.6%50.7%261 / 516 vs 114 / 225Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HendrychHendrych 1.83/Moravec 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hendrych · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 17:59J. Hendrych389111081P. Moravec4311912113
WSep 25 · 14:50J. Hendrych351311113P. Moravec2611780
LSep 24 · 17:24J. Hendrych258890P. Moravec331111113
WSep 24 · 14:50J. Hendrych571191511113P. Moravec4881117662
LSep 8 · 17:55J. Hendrych36811981P. Moravec4211911113
WSep 8 · 16:50J. Hendrych4011117113P. Moravec29871131
LAug 20 · 17:55J. Hendrych3351121232P. Moravec491161110113
WAug 20 · 15:20J. Hendrych551081211143P. Moravec531211108122
WAug 17 · 15:25J. Hendrych4271111133P. Moravec391198111
LAug 11 · 15:25J. Hendrych391171291P. Moravec4371114113
J. Hendrych10
LOct 2 · 16:25M. Dvorak1.831111113J. Hendrych1.837570LSep 30 · 22:03J. Hendrych2.2048111162J. Hrncir1.61111179113WSep 30 · 20:55J. Hrncir1.5779111152J. Hendrych2.25111196113LSep 30 · 20:25M. Sulc1.401281111113J. Hendrych2.7514119582LSep 30 · 19:25J. Hendrych2.509101171M. Kulisek1.5011124113LSep 25 · 17:59J. Hendrych1.809111081P. Moravec1.9111912113LSep 25 · 16:20Z. Zahradka1.53111011113J. Hendrych2.38812721WSep 25 · 15:50D. Sochor1.91112951J. Hendrych1.8081111113WSep 25 · 14:50J. Hendrych1.831311113P. Moravec1.8311780LSep 24 · 17:24J. Hendrych2.208890P. Moravec1.611111113
P. Moravec10
WOct 2 · 15:55Z. Zahradka2.6368100P. Moravec1.441111123WSep 25 · 17:59J. Hendrych1.809111081P. Moravec1.9111912113WSep 25 · 16:50P. Moravec1.53311813113D. Sochor2.38115111172WSep 25 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.3813118101P. Moravec1.5315911123LSep 25 · 14:50J. Hendrych1.831311113P. Moravec1.8311780WSep 24 · 17:24J. Hendrych2.208890P. Moravec1.611111113LSep 24 · 16:50P. Moravec1.6711812752M. Dvorak2.108111011113LSep 24 · 15:20Z. Zahradka3.001111113P. Moravec1.369480LSep 24 · 14:50J. Hendrych1.731191511113P. Moravec2.0081117662LSep 17 · 10:08A. Langer1.911111113P. Moravec1.804880
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