TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Hrncir vs Jan Hendrych 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711911119116511
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeJan Hrncir to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Hrncir above · Jan Hendrych below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 91 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Jan Hrncir at 60.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Hrncir 13–10 Jan Hendrych Jan Hendrych has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:5260.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hrncir
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-10 in 23
Hrncir
Wrong
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrncir 1520 vs Hendrych 1492
Hrncir
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrncir 20% vs Hendrych 40%
Hendrych
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrncir 40% vs Hendrych 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrncir -3 · Hendrych -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Hrncir) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrncir form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrncir 1.571 / Hendrych 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Hrncir)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13221804
Hrncir1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 23 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Hendrych2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 53 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back27% 15 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrncir6wins
AwayHendrych4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHrncir leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrncir83.3%5 of 6
AwayHendrych75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrncir6Hendrych4n = 10Hrncir took 6 of 10
S2Hrncir7Hendrych3n = 10Hrncir took 7 of 10
S3Hrncir6Hendrych4n = 10Hrncir took 6 of 10
S4Hrncir5Hendrych3n = 8Hrncir took 5 of 8
S5Hrncir1Hendrych3n = 4Hendrych took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrncirHendrychHrncir − HendrychBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.637.1+4.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrncirHendrychBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 196 vs 260 / 51354.1%50.7%106 / 196 vs 260 / 513Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrncirHrncir 1.57/Hendrych 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Hrncir · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hendrych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 22:00J. Hrncir4211119113J. Hendrych32961161
LAug 12 · 19:25J. Hrncir45115811102J. Hendrych49911116123
WJul 30 · 21:58J. Hrncir331111113J. Hendrych184680
WJul 30 · 19:20J. Hrncir521111118113J. Hendrych3841371132
LJul 17 · 19:25J. Hrncir29711651J. Hendrych4111811113
LJul 2 · 18:50J. Hrncir4148111172J. Hendrych48111169113
WJun 19 · 15:55J. Hrncir421311183J. Hendrych35118160
WMay 22 · 16:50J. Hrncir4181111113J. Hendrych24112921
WJan 7 · 20:50J. Hrncir4211119113J. Hendrych35881181
LDec 2 · 19:50J. Hrncir4991113792J. Hendrych511171111113
J. Hrncir10
LSep 30 · 19:55J. Hrncir2.00812111052M. Kulisek1.731110912113LSep 30 · 18:55J. Hrncir1.737101121M. Sulc2.0011128113LSep 23 · 22:23O. Fiklik1.671771111113J. Hrncir2.07151161352WSep 23 · 20:55A. Rek1.57611101152J. Hrncir2.25119126113LSep 23 · 20:25O. Fiklik1.671112143J. Hrncir2.10810120WSep 23 · 19:25J. Hrncir1.831211113M. Sulc1.8310770WSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113WSep 16 · 16:55J. Volek2.00128100J. Hrncir1.731411123LSep 16 · 16:25A. Kosacky1.441112113J. Hrncir2.6361070LSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113
J. Hendrych10
LSep 30 · 20:25M. Sulc1.401281111113J. Hendrych2.7514119582LSep 30 · 19:25J. Hendrych2.509101171M. Kulisek1.5011124113LSep 25 · 17:59J. Hendrych1.809111081P. Moravec1.9111912113LSep 25 · 16:20Z. Zahradka1.53111011113J. Hendrych2.38812721WSep 25 · 15:50D. Sochor1.91112951J. Hendrych1.8081111113WSep 25 · 14:50J. Hendrych1.831311113P. Moravec1.8311780LSep 24 · 17:24J. Hendrych2.208890P. Moravec1.611111113LSep 24 · 16:20Z. Zahradka1.67101111113J. Hendrych2.10126661LSep 24 · 15:50M. Dvorak1.911111113J. Hendrych1.802530WSep 24 · 14:50J. Hendrych1.731191511113P. Moravec2.0081117662
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.