TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Melichar vs David Sykora 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311811117911411
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:40 and never touched: 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Melichar to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Melichar above · David Sykora below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 96 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Jiri Melichar at 57.9%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Melichar 2–2 David Sykora Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Melichar beat Sykora 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4057.9%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
short by 4.6pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Melichar
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melichar 1528 vs Sykora 1512
Melichar
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melichar 60% vs Sykora 40%
Melichar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melichar 50% vs Sykora 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melichar +3 · Sykora +1
Melichar
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Melichar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelichar 1.60 / Sykora 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Melichar)-4.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13234107
Melichar1.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 18 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Sykora2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 35 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back32% 20 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back14% 5 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMelichar2wins
AwaySykora2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelichar66.7%2 of 3
AwaySykoran = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melichar3Sykora1n = 4Melichar took 3 of 4
S2Melichar2Sykora2n = 4split evenly
S3Melichar2Sykora2n = 4split evenly
S4Melichar3Sykora0n = 3Melichar took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMelicharSykoraM − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match40.238.2+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelicharSykoraBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 75 vs 271 / 49957.3%54.3%43 / 75 vs 271 / 499Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelicharMelichar 1.60/Sykora 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.9%
Melichar · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sykora won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 2 · 15:50J. Melichar3811115113D. Sykora32781161
LAug 16 · 18:35J. Melichar3911561162D. Sykora43411116113
LAug 16 · 16:55J. Melichar46511111182D. Sykora47111366113
WNov 8 · 11:55J. Melichar381211153D. Sykora31108130
J. Melichar10
WOct 2 · 16:20A. Kral2.255111081J. Melichar1.5711712113WOct 2 · 15:50D. Sykora1.91781161J. Melichar1.8011115113WOct 2 · 14:50J. Melichar2.1091111113J. Dvorak1.67119681LSep 28 · 18:40J. Kulveit1.8311114113J. Melichar1.83591161LSep 28 · 16:55O. Varecka2.00411117113J. Melichar1.7311821172LSep 28 · 16:25J. Kulveit2.1011119113J. Melichar1.67651181WSep 28 · 15:25J. Melichar1.441212113R. Jamrich2.63101080LSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113WSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780
D. Sykora10
WOct 2 · 16:50J. Dvorak2.637780D. Sykora1.441111113LOct 2 · 15:50D. Sykora1.91781161J. Melichar1.8011115113WOct 2 · 14:20A. Kral2.63912841D. Sykora1.44111011113LSep 17 · 17:30D. Sykora1.709630M. Dvorak2.021111113LSep 17 · 16:20D. Sykora1.83116761J. Hendrych1.8391111113LSep 17 · 15:20D. Sykora3.00910100M. Sochor1.361112123WSep 17 · 14:20D. Sykora1.8311111113M. Dvorak1.83841151WSep 14 · 17:50Z. Zahradka3.00101191182D. Sykora1.36127118113WSep 14 · 16:20D. Sykora1.8381111113J. Hendrych1.83118871LSep 14 · 15:20D. Sykora1.30811771Z. Zahradka3.4011811113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.