TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Zdenek Zahradka vs Jiri Melichar 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811411––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeJiri Melichar to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Zahradka above · Jiri Melichar below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 56 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Jiri Melichar at 64.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Zahradka 3–6 Jiri Melichar Zdenek Zahradka has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3764.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Melichar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Melichar
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zahradka 1436 vs Melichar 1528
Melichar
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zahradka 80% vs Melichar 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zahradka 60% vs Melichar 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zahradka -1 · Melichar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Melichar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melichar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZahradka 2.50 / Melichar 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Melichar)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13247648
Zahradka2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 71 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back12% 14 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 64
Melichar1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 20 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 12 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeZahradka3wins
AwayMelichar6wins
5 of 9 to a deciderMelichar leads 6–3, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZahradka66.7%2 of 3
AwayMelichar83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zahradka3Melichar6n = 9Melichar took 6 of 9
S2Zahradka3Melichar6n = 9Melichar took 6 of 9
S3Zahradka4Melichar5n = 9Melichar took 5 of 9
S4Zahradka3Melichar5n = 8Melichar took 5 of 8
S5Zahradka3Melichar2n = 5Zahradka took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricZahradkaMelicharZ − MBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match36.842.6−5.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZahradkaMelicharBasisWin rate · lifetime397 / 805 vs 44 / 7749.3%57.1%397 / 805 vs 44 / 77Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelicharZahradka 2.50/Melichar 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Melichar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Melichar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 6 · 18:03Z. Zahradka49712811113J. Melichar46111011682
LSep 6 · 17:25Z. Zahradka4481151192J. Melichar47117117113
LSep 4 · 17:25Z. Zahradka32571191J. Melichar4211119113
WAug 30 · 14:01Z. Zahradka46118115113J. Melichar4181191122
WAug 30 · 11:55Z. Zahradka43111173113J. Melichar4597111172
LAug 21 · 16:25Z. Zahradka4478111172J. Melichar44111138113
LAug 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka21121531J. Melichar43101111113
LNov 8 · 12:55Z. Zahradka249690J. Melichar331111113
LJun 25 · 15:20Z. Zahradka28841151J. Melichar4211119113
Z. Zahradka10
LOct 5 · 16:50J. Hendrych2.50121177113Z. Zahradka1.50109111182LOct 5 · 14:20D. Sykora1.5311311113Z. Zahradka2.38711771WOct 3 · 10:30Z. Zahradka1.461111113P. Chlumsky2.558760WOct 3 · 09:25Z. Zahradka2.0012811113J. Dvorak1.731011651WOct 3 · 07:55A. Kral2.2026100Z. Zahradka1.611111123WOct 3 · 07:25P. Chlumsky2.6390Z. Zahradka1.44111WOct 2 · 18:06Z. Zahradka1.571111113J. Hendrych2.258240WOct 2 · 16:55Z. Zahradka1.8011411113J. Hendrych1.91811351LOct 2 · 15:55Z. Zahradka2.6368100P. Moravec1.441111123WOct 2 · 14:55Z. Zahradka2.10121411113M. Dvorak1.671412841
J. Melichar10
LOct 5 · 16:20D. Sykora2.1051111113J. Melichar1.67115931WOct 5 · 14:50J. Melichar1.671111113J. Hendrych2.105970LOct 2 · 17:50J. Melichar1.6013811942D. Sykora2.201111711113WOct 2 · 16:20A. Kral2.255111081J. Melichar1.5711712113WOct 2 · 15:50D. Sykora1.91781161J. Melichar1.8011115113WOct 2 · 14:50J. Melichar2.1091111113J. Dvorak1.67119681LSep 28 · 18:40J. Kulveit1.8311114113J. Melichar1.83591161LSep 28 · 16:55O. Varecka2.00411117113J. Melichar1.7311821172LSep 28 · 16:25J. Kulveit2.1011119113J. Melichar1.67651181WSep 28 · 15:25J. Melichar1.441212113R. Jamrich2.63101080
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