TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Zdenek Zahradka vs Jakub Dvorak 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210811116115––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:19 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jakub Dvorak @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingZdenek Zahradka above · Jakub Dvorak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 74 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Jakub Dvorak at 56.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Zahradka 38–46 Jakub Dvorak Zdenek Zahradka has won 38 of their 84 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 08:19Sent to Pro: Jakub Dvorak @ 1.73 · Lost
56.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
38-46 in 84
Dvorak
Wrong
gap of 8 in 84, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zahradka 1428 vs Dvorak 1467
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zahradka 80% vs Dvorak 40%
Zahradka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zahradka 50% vs Dvorak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zahradka +3 · Dvorak -1
Zahradka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Dvorak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZahradka 2.00 / Dvorak 1.727
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dvorak)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13236234
Zahradka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 71 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back13% 15 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 64
Dvorak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 28 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it73% 22 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZahradka3wins
AwayDvorak7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZahradka100%3 of 3
AwayDvorak100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zahradka3Dvorak7n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S2Zahradka6Dvorak4n = 10Zahradka took 6 of 10
S3Zahradka9Dvorak1n = 10Zahradka took 9 of 10
S4Zahradka3Dvorak5n = 8Dvorak took 5 of 8
S5Zahradka0Dvorak5n = 5Dvorak took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZahradkaDvorakZ − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.540.3+0.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZahradkaDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 811 vs 169 / 34849.1%48.6%398 / 811 vs 169 / 348Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakZahradka 2.00/Dvorak 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.9%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jakub Dvorak @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Zahradka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 09:25Z. Zahradka4212811113J. Dvorak321011651
LSep 16 · 15:20Z. Zahradka4781215842J. Dvorak5611101311113
LSep 8 · 17:23Z. Zahradka49981111102J. Dvorak47111158123
LSep 8 · 16:20Z. Zahradka33671191J. Dvorak3611113113
LSep 6 · 14:55Z. Zahradka464111110102J. Dvorak49118612123
LSep 5 · 14:55Z. Zahradka4241171192J. Dvorak46115118113
WAug 29 · 10:30Z. Zahradka331111113J. Dvorak198740
LAug 29 · 06:55Z. Zahradka447813161J. Dvorak51111111183
WAug 23 · 18:08Z. Zahradka331111113J. Dvorak219570
LAug 23 · 15:25Z. Zahradka3651111722J. Dvorak46116711113
Z. Zahradka10
WOct 3 · 07:55A. Kral2.2026100Z. Zahradka1.611111123WOct 3 · 07:25P. Chlumsky2.6390Z. Zahradka1.44111WOct 2 · 18:06Z. Zahradka1.571111113J. Hendrych2.258240WOct 2 · 16:55Z. Zahradka1.8011411113J. Hendrych1.91811351LOct 2 · 15:55Z. Zahradka2.6368100P. Moravec1.441111123WOct 2 · 14:55Z. Zahradka2.10121411113M. Dvorak1.671412841LSep 29 · 18:00D. Tichy1.611211113Z. Zahradka2.2010490LSep 29 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.73115117113Z. Zahradka2.0031151172LSep 29 · 16:25J. Cerny1.57116711113Z. Zahradka2.2581111782LSep 29 · 15:25Z. Zahradka2.10111311372D. Tichy1.67715711113
J. Dvorak10
LOct 3 · 09:59J. Dvorak1.671163101A. Kral2.1081111123LOct 3 · 08:25J. Dvorak1.8310990P. Chlumsky1.831211113WOct 3 · 06:55A. Kral2.10611771J. Dvorak1.6711811113WOct 2 · 17:20A. Kral2.0211470J. Dvorak1.701311113LOct 2 · 16:50J. Dvorak2.637780D. Sykora1.441111113LOct 2 · 15:20A. Kral2.1081111123J. Dvorak1.671188101LOct 2 · 14:50J. Melichar2.1091111113J. Dvorak1.67119681WSep 21 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.91113114113M. Dvorak1.8091161172LSep 21 · 16:50J. Dvorak1.804119101M. Dvorak1.9111511123WSep 21 · 15:20J. Cerny1.83311641J. Dvorak1.8311211113
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