TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Bruno Mrowetz vs Radek Benes 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3119111412811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:43 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeBruno Mrowetz to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBruno Mrowetz above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 79 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Bruno Mrowetz at 57.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Bruno Mrowetz 13–22 Radek Benes Bruno Mrowetz has won 13 of their 35 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4357.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mrowetz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-22 in 35
Benes
Correct
gap of 9 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrowetz 1622 vs Benes 1640
Benes
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrowetz 20% vs Benes 60%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrowetz 50% vs Benes 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrowetz -1 · Benes -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Mrowetz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrowetz 1.615 / Benes 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Mrowetz)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13246148
Mrowetz1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 79 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it76% 59 of 78
Benes2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 56 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrowetz5wins
AwayBenes5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrowetz62.5%5 of 8
AwayBenesn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrowetz8Benes2n = 10Mrowetz took 8 of 10
S2Mrowetz4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S3Mrowetz8Benes2n = 10Mrowetz took 8 of 10
S4Mrowetz1Benes5n = 6Benes took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrowetzBenesM − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.436.9+2.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrowetzBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 530 vs 528 / 101150.4%52.2%267 / 530 vs 528 / 1011Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MrowetzMrowetz 1.61/Benes 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Mrowetz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 06:45B. Mrowetz34391481R. Benes45111112113
WOct 1 · 06:40B. Mrowetz4211911113R. Benes31611771
LSep 28 · 10:40B. Mrowetz4411119131R. Benes4671311153
WSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz351111133R. Benes2577110
WSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz331111113R. Benes195860
LSep 2 · 12:15B. Mrowetz351161081R. Benes4391112113
WAug 25 · 12:10B. Mrowetz391711113R. Benes3015960
LAug 10 · 11:40B. Mrowetz44121111101R. Benes4814139123
WAug 3 · 15:45B. Mrowetz391315113R. Benes33111390
LJul 27 · 12:10B. Mrowetz49118118112R. Benes49511911133
B. Mrowetz10
WOct 5 · 07:45B. Mrowetz1.501111113L. Slavik2.506880LOct 5 · 05:45B. Mrowetz1.91118611102T. Krenek1.80611118123WOct 4 · 12:50T. Molin2.7591611692B. Mrowetz1.401114811113LOct 4 · 11:45B. Mrowetz1.735570J. Krupnik2.001111113LOct 4 · 10:45B. Mrowetz1.61111111652J. Travnicek2.20137811113LOct 4 · 09:45B. Mrowetz1.539870T. Molin2.381111113WOct 1 · 13:05B. Mrowetz1.9151111113D. Velky Jr1.80116171LOct 1 · 11:40D. Velky Jr2.201112113B. Mrowetz1.6181090WOct 1 · 11:10T. Kindl2.109940B. Mrowetz1.671111113WOct 1 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.831111115113L. Dzida1.8385131162
R. Benes10
LOct 5 · 06:15L. Slavik2.2011111011113R. Benes1.6113412672WOct 4 · 17:15R. Benes2.101113410153D. Velky Jr1.678111112132LOct 4 · 15:40L. Dzida2.2571111113R. Benes1.57114771WOct 4 · 15:10R. Solle2.385136121R. Benes1.53111111143WOct 4 · 14:10R. Benes2.2091111113D. Velky Jr1.61118361LOct 1 · 08:38R. Benes1.441061251E. Precek2.63121110113WOct 1 · 08:10R. Benes1.6111114133E. Precek2.209911111LOct 1 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.6711911113R. Benes2.10611771WOct 1 · 06:10J. Krupnik1.8399111182R. Benes1.83111197113WSep 30 · 13:08M. Moravec1.839112111R. Benes1.8311911133
Upcoming Matches
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R. Benes
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