TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Skakal vs Viktor Vejvoda 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111149111012––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched: 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Skakal to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Skakal above · Viktor Vejvoda below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 76 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Martin Skakal at 68.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skakal 4–5 Viktor Vejvoda Martin Skakal has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Skakal beat Vejvoda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1868.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Skakal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skakal 1724 vs Vejvoda 1572
Skakal
Wrong
both rated, 152 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skakal 40% vs Vejvoda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skakal 60% vs Vejvoda 20%
Skakal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skakal -1 · Vejvoda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Skakal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skakal form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkakal 1.40 / Vejvoda 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Skakal)-2.7pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13245777
Skakal1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 40 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Vejvoda2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 83 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back19% 23 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSkakal4wins
AwayVejvoda5wins
1 of 9 to a deciderVejvoda leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkakal80%4 of 5
AwayVejvoda100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skakal5Vejvoda4n = 9Skakal took 5 of 9
S2Skakal2Vejvoda7n = 9Vejvoda took 7 of 9
S3Skakal7Vejvoda2n = 9Skakal took 7 of 9
S4Skakal2Vejvoda3n = 5Vejvoda took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricSkakalVejvodaS − VBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match34.132.2+1.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkakalVejvodaBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 186 vs 461 / 89153.2%51.7%99 / 186 vs 461 / 891Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkakalSkakal 1.40/Vejvoda 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.7%
Skakal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vejvoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 4 · 19:00M. Skakal43111011113V. Vejvoda30812731
WSep 22 · 23:00M. Skakal331111113V. Vejvoda173770
WSep 18 · 02:58M. Skakal331111113V. Vejvoda227960
WSep 17 · 23:30M. Skakal3511211113V. Vejvoda31411881
LAug 31 · 03:30M. Skakal32691161V. Vejvoda3911116113
LAug 31 · 02:30M. Skakal2571260V. Vejvoda361114113
LJul 18 · 22:30M. Skakal4611911962V. Vejvoda42511411113
LJul 18 · 19:00M. Skakal388811111V. Vejvoda4011115133
LMay 4 · 01:00M. Skakal228950V. Vejvoda331111113
M. Skakal10
LOct 4 · 20:00T. Franek1.6741111113M. Skakal2.10117691WOct 4 · 19:00V. Vejvoda3.75812731M. Skakal1.25111011113WOct 4 · 18:30M. Skakal1.83111111113O. Cmerda1.83133431LOct 1 · 03:30M. Wagner1.771111123M. Skakal1.9399100LOct 1 · 02:30M. Skakal1.61811381J. Tazler2.2011811113WOct 1 · 01:30M. Wagner2.2511961172M. Skakal1.57711119113WOct 1 · 00:00M. Skakal1.441312113S. Kasnik2.63111040WSep 30 · 23:00M. Regner2.507650M. Skakal1.501111113WSep 30 · 21:30M. Skakal2.20711117113R. Rose1.6011681162LSep 30 · 20:00R. Rose1.8311811113M. Skakal1.83511691
V. Vejvoda10
WOct 4 · 20:30V. Vejvoda2.6311711153O. Cmerda1.448115131LOct 4 · 19:00V. Vejvoda3.75812731M. Skakal1.25111011113WOct 4 · 18:00T. Franek1.6181181132V. Vejvoda2.20118118113LOct 2 · 17:12M. Pikous1.431111113V. Vejvoda2.605940LOct 2 · 16:30J. Louda1.4411159123V. Vejvoda2.6331311101LOct 2 · 15:30V. Vejvoda2.63413761M. Pikous1.44111111113LOct 2 · 14:31R. Wagner1.461111113V. Vejvoda2.556880LSep 30 · 13:00V. Vejvoda1.8331181192J. Zuzanek1.83115119113LSep 30 · 12:30M. Sychra2.10811175113V. Vejvoda1.67116151132LSep 30 · 11:30V. Vejvoda1.6791151172A. Brazda2.10115117113
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