TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Sychra vs Viktor Vejvoda 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111161715511113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:31 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeViktor Vejvoda to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Viktor Vejvoda @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingMartin Sychra above · Viktor Vejvoda below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 17-15
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 98 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Viktor Vejvoda at 57.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sychra 16–35 Viktor Vejvoda Martin Sychra has won 16 of their 51 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Sychra beat Vejvoda 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:3157.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vejvoda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-35 in 51
Vejvoda
Wrong
gap of 19 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sychra 1641 vs Vejvoda 1614
Sychra
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sychra 80% vs Vejvoda 40%
Sychra
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sychra 60% vs Vejvoda 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sychra +1 · Vejvoda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Vejvoda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vejvoda form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSychra 2.10 / Vejvoda 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Vejvoda)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216700
Sychra2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 143 of 319
Down 0–1, comes back27% 47 of 174
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 92
Vejvoda1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 169 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it92% 81 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it83% 113 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSychra3wins
AwayVejvoda7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVejvoda leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSychran = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVejvoda75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sychra2Vejvoda8n = 10Vejvoda took 8 of 10
S2Sychra5Vejvoda5n = 10split evenly
S3Sychra5Vejvoda5n = 10split evenly
S4Sychra3Vejvoda3n = 6split evenly
S5Sychra2Vejvoda4n = 6Vejvoda took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSychraVejvodaS − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.143.4−3.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSychraVejvodaBasisWin rate · lifetime809 / 1543 vs 468 / 89852.4%52.1%809 / 1543 vs 468 / 898Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VejvodaSychra 2.10/Vejvoda 1.67
Miss
What we said
57%
Vejvoda · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Viktor Vejvoda @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Sychra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 08:00M. Sychra331111113V. Vejvoda219570
LSep 27 · 18:30M. Sychra4071111562V. Vejvoda50118911113
LSep 25 · 12:30M. Sychra4287111152V. Vejvoda49111188113
LSep 23 · 02:00M. Sychra501111810102V. Vejvoda51791112123
LSep 21 · 07:00M. Sychra239590V. Vejvoda331111113
LSep 17 · 17:29M. Sychra49611119122V. Vejvoda48115711143
WSep 17 · 14:30M. Sychra553141113143V. Vejvoda5911121311122
WSep 6 · 23:30M. Sychra46761111113V. Vejvoda4211116862
LSep 2 · 01:00M. Sychra3114890V. Vejvoda381611113
LAug 29 · 21:30M. Sychra3251980V. Vejvoda431121113
M. Sychra10
WSep 30 · 11:00M. Sychra1.801131111113J. Zuzanek1.9113119892LSep 30 · 10:00A. Brazda2.25114115123M. Sychra1.57511811102WSep 30 · 09:30M. Regner1.808115101M. Sychra1.9111911123WSep 30 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.739570M. Sychra2.001111113WSep 30 · 07:00J. Zuzanek2.107940M. Sychra1.671111113LSep 30 · 06:30M. Sychra1.911110111352M. Regner1.808121311113WSep 29 · 03:00M. Sychra1.6531111113M. Vizek2.10118441WSep 29 · 02:00M. Sychra1.83771111113V. Dvorak1.8311117772LSep 29 · 01:00M. Sychra2.00911781M. Regner1.7311811113LSep 29 · 00:00K. Schopf1.8371111113M. Sychra1.83116691
V. Vejvoda10
LSep 30 · 13:00V. Vejvoda1.8331181192J. Zuzanek1.83115119113LSep 30 · 11:30V. Vejvoda1.6791151172A. Brazda2.10115117113WSep 30 · 10:30J. Zuzanek1.73118991V. Vejvoda2.0071111113WSep 30 · 08:58J. Zuzanek1.7381111992V. Vejvoda2.00116911113LSep 30 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.739570M. Sychra2.001111113LSep 30 · 07:30M. Regner2.10111186113V. Vejvoda1.6775111152LSep 30 · 06:00V. Vejvoda1.83381161J. Zuzanek1.8311119113WSep 27 · 21:30V. Vejvoda2.75111110133M. Pikous1.402512111LSep 27 · 20:00M. Pikous1.4471111113V. Vejvoda2.63117481WSep 27 · 19:00R. Pacha1.676480V. Vejvoda2.101111113
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