TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Sychra vs Jiri Zuzanek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113311119118119
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:50 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sychra to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sychra above · Jiri Zuzanek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Martin Sychra at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sychra 30–45 Jiri Zuzanek Martin Sychra has won 30 of their 75 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Sychra beat Zuzanek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5054.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sychra
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-45 in 75
Zuzanek
Wrong
gap of 15 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sychra 1633 vs Zuzanek 1546
Sychra
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sychra 60% vs Zuzanek 20%
Sychra
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sychra 60% vs Zuzanek 20%
Sychra
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sychra -1 · Zuzanek -4
Zuzanek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sychra) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zuzanek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSychra 1.80 / Zuzanek 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sychra)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216721
Sychra1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 223 of 382
Up 2–0, closes it94% 102 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it79% 154 of 194
Zuzanek1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 116 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back29% 35 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSychra5wins
AwayZuzanek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSychra66.7%2 of 3
AwayZuzanek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sychra3Zuzanek7n = 10Zuzanek took 7 of 10
S2Sychra3Zuzanek7n = 10Zuzanek took 7 of 10
S3Sychra7Zuzanek3n = 10Sychra took 7 of 10
S4Sychra7Zuzanek1n = 8Sychra took 7 of 8
S5Sychra2Zuzanek3n = 5Zuzanek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSychraZuzanekS − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.540.7−1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSychraZuzanekBasisWin rate · lifetime808 / 1542 vs 544 / 108952.4%50%808 / 1542 vs 544 / 1089Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SychraSychra 1.80/Zuzanek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sychra · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sychra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 07:00M. Sychra331111113J. Zuzanek207940
WSep 27 · 16:00M. Sychra47613411133J. Zuzanek501111116112
LSep 25 · 11:30M. Sychra43641211102J. Zuzanek521111108123
WSep 21 · 13:30M. Sychra4513714113J. Zuzanek4211111281
LSep 21 · 12:00M. Sychra44116101252J. Zuzanek473111210113
WSep 17 · 10:30M. Sychra3951112113J. Zuzanek351191051
LAug 31 · 12:00M. Sychra155550J. Zuzanek331111113
LAug 31 · 08:30M. Sychra4366111192J. Zuzanek42111136113
WAug 13 · 16:30M. Sychra51891112113J. Zuzanek44111161062
LAug 5 · 02:30M. Sychra35871191J. Zuzanek4211119113
M. Sychra10
LSep 30 · 10:00A. Brazda2.25114115123M. Sychra1.57511811102WSep 30 · 09:30M. Regner1.808115101M. Sychra1.9111911123WSep 30 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.739570M. Sychra2.001111113WSep 30 · 07:00J. Zuzanek2.107940M. Sychra1.671111113LSep 30 · 06:30M. Sychra1.911110111352M. Regner1.808121311113WSep 29 · 03:00M. Sychra1.6531111113M. Vizek2.10118441WSep 29 · 02:00M. Sychra1.83771111113V. Dvorak1.8311117772LSep 29 · 01:00M. Sychra2.00911781M. Regner1.7311811113LSep 29 · 00:00K. Schopf1.8371111113M. Sychra1.83116691WSep 28 · 22:30M. Vizek2.0091181152M. Sychra1.73119117113
J. Zuzanek10
LSep 30 · 12:00A. Brazda1.671211113J. Zuzanek2.1010890LSep 30 · 10:30J. Zuzanek1.73118991V. Vejvoda2.0071111113LSep 30 · 08:58J. Zuzanek1.7381111992V. Vejvoda2.00116911113LSep 30 · 08:30J. Zuzanek1.8361490M. Regner1.831116113LSep 30 · 07:00J. Zuzanek2.107940M. Sychra1.671111113WSep 30 · 06:00V. Vejvoda1.83381161J. Zuzanek1.8311119113LSep 29 · 17:00M. Wagner1.24111211113J. Zuzanek3.75614941WSep 29 · 16:30J. Zuzanek2.3811911113P. Saleny1.53911691LSep 29 · 15:00J. Zuzanek2.38511131192M. Wagner1.53115159113LSep 29 · 14:30M. Pikous1.3615611113J. Zuzanek3.001311541
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