TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Zdenek Bilek vs Jakub Vales 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1175111012811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Vales to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Bilek above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Jakub Vales at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Bilek 12–10 Jakub Vales Jakub Vales has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Bilek beat Vales 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vales
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Bilek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bilek 1822 vs Vales 1848
Vales
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bilek 100% vs Vales 40%
Bilek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bilek 50% vs Vales 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bilek +5 · Vales -1
Bilek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vales) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vales form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBilek 1.90 / Vales 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vales)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13245763
Bilek1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 33 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back28% 12 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Vales1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 109 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it71% 68 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBilek6wins
AwayVales4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBilek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBilek60%3 of 5
AwayVales40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bilek5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S2Bilek3Vales7n = 10Vales took 7 of 10
S3Bilek5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S4Bilek6Vales3n = 9Bilek took 6 of 9
S5Bilek3Vales1n = 4Bilek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBilekValesB − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.138.8+1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBilekValesBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 333 vs 297 / 54552.6%54.5%175 / 333 vs 297 / 545Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ValesBilek 1.90/Vales 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vales won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 18:30Z. Bilek44831111113J. Vales4311117592
LJul 23 · 21:28Z. Bilek32781161J. Vales4011117113
WJul 23 · 18:30Z. Bilek43111011113J. Vales33912931
LJul 13 · 18:30Z. Bilek511171011122J. Vales50611127143
WJun 27 · 03:30Z. Bilek481011124113J. Vales46129101142
LJun 27 · 01:30Z. Bilek147340J. Vales331111113
WJun 10 · 19:00Z. Bilek4311119123J. Vales281611101
WJun 3 · 19:30Z. Bilek49119711113J. Vales3841111932
LApr 20 · 18:00Z. Bilek31129641J. Vales43101111113
WApr 16 · 18:30Z. Bilek46101114113J. Vales341261241
Z. Bilek10
WOct 4 · 20:30T. Postelt2.506670Z. Bilek1.501111113WOct 4 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.2071211113E. Mares1.611110561WOct 4 · 18:30J. Vales1.8011117592Z. Bilek1.91831111113WSep 19 · 21:00Z. Bilek2.302411169113E. Mares1.55268141182WSep 19 · 20:30D. Opanasiuk1.73115116102Z. Bilek2.00411511123LSep 19 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.7511196812J. Cernik1.407171111113LSep 19 · 18:30E. Mares1.67111112123Z. Bilek2.109814101LSep 15 · 21:00V. Koubek1.911311113Z. Bilek1.8011990LSep 15 · 20:30M. Zahradka2.2011114113Z. Bilek1.61681141LSep 15 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.10615112272E. Mares1.671117920113
J. Vales10
LOct 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8311811143J. Vales1.839119121WOct 4 · 19:00T. Postelt2.6311611892J. Vales1.44511911113LOct 4 · 18:30J. Vales1.8011117592Z. Bilek1.91831111113WSep 30 · 13:30J. Vales1.831114113E. Mares1.8381290LSep 30 · 12:00T. Postelt2.6314131111113J. Vales1.441211131362WSep 30 · 11:00M. Zahradka2.7511711131J. Vales1.4013114153WSep 30 · 10:30J. Vales1.801111113E. Mares1.919870LSep 30 · 09:04E. Mares1.631113113J. Vales2.1351190LSep 30 · 08:30R. Urbaniec2.38911512113J. Vales1.53118111082LSep 30 · 07:30J. Vales1.838590E. Mares1.831111113
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