TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Badanin vs Anatoliy Lysyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214119311411––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatoliy Lysyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Badanin above · Anatoliy Lysyi below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 75 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Anatoliy Lysyi at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Badanin 21–12 Anatoliy Lysyi Anatoliy Lysyi has won 12 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2754.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Badanin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-12 in 33
Badanin
Wrong
gap of 9 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badanin 1165 vs Lysyi 1204
Lysyi
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badanin 60% vs Lysyi 40%
Badanin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badanin 50% vs Lysyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Badanin -1 · Lysyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lysyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadanin 1.80 / Lysyi 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lysyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13245315
Badanin1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 32 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Lysyi1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 40 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBadanin5wins
AwayLysyi5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBadanin100%4 of 4
AwayLysyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badanin4Lysyi6n = 10Lysyi took 6 of 10
S2Badanin5Lysyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Badanin5Lysyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Badanin2Lysyi3n = 5Lysyi took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadaninLysyiB − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.032.4−0.4per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadaninLysyiBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 326 vs 191 / 41947.9%45.6%156 / 326 vs 191 / 419Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LysyiBadanin 1.80/Lysyi 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lysyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lysyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 06:30O. Badanin301211341A. Lysyi4514911113
LSep 14 · 06:30O. Badanin209470A. Lysyi331111113
LSep 7 · 05:30O. Badanin36991171A. Lysyi4211119113
WJun 22 · 10:28O. Badanin4211119113A. Lysyi32751191
LJun 22 · 06:30O. Badanin1918100A. Lysyi341111123
WJun 15 · 06:30O. Badanin4181111113A. Lysyi27115651
WApr 24 · 05:00O. Badanin331111113A. Lysyi179440
LApr 10 · 10:34O. Badanin157620A. Lysyi331111113
WApr 10 · 08:30O. Badanin51119128113A. Lysyi48711101192
WMar 27 · 10:30O. Badanin331111113A. Lysyi138140
O. Badanin10
WOct 5 · 08:00O. Badanin1.251111113V. Hyriavyi3.756650LOct 5 · 05:00O. Badanin2.3811127942M. Zavoloka1.533101111113WOct 4 · 09:59V. Khyzhnyak2.10101090O. Badanin1.671212113WOct 4 · 08:30R. Sveshnykov1.3311911992O. Badanin3.25911711113WOct 4 · 07:30O. Badanin1.537101111113S. Zherykhin2.3811124472LOct 4 · 06:30V. Yarovyi1.83731111113O. Badanin1.8311115982LOct 4 · 05:30O. Badanin1.5011781192V. Khyzhnyak2.50911114113WOct 2 · 09:58O. Badanin3.0041211113M. Zavoloka1.361110591WOct 2 · 09:00O. Badanin1.7361115113Y. Urezchenko2.001161391LOct 2 · 08:00M. Zavoloka1.441111123O. Badanin2.6379100
A. Lysyi10
LOct 5 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.638890M. Zavoloka1.441111113WOct 5 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.22121111123V. Hyriavyi4.001489101LOct 4 · 15:30V. Kurliuk1.2011114123A. Lysyi4.337511101WOct 4 · 14:30A. Lysyi3.001112463O. Levytskyi1.368101151LOct 4 · 13:30V. Simchuk1.20113119113A. Lysyi4.3341171142LOct 4 · 12:30A. Lysyi3.402990I. Sorochan1.301111113WSep 29 · 10:02A. Lysyi1.401111113E. Bakin2.759340WSep 29 · 09:00A. Lysyi2.101111113V. Matviichuk1.678370LSep 29 · 08:00S. Honcharenko1.401111113A. Lysyi2.759890LSep 29 · 07:00V. Simchuk1.2011413123A. Lysyi4.3371111101
Upcoming Matches
O. Badanin
A. Lysyi
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.