TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Honcharenko vs Viktor Hyriavyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311112811711––
Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 13
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:52 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Viktor Hyriavyi below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 64 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 79.4%
64 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 53–24 Viktor Hyriavyi Viktor Hyriavyi has won 24 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5279.4%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 0.6pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Honcharenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
53-24 in 77
Honcharenko
Wrong
gap of 29 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1190 vs Hyriavyi 921
Honcharenko
Wrong
both rated, 269 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 40% vs Hyriavyi 0%
Honcharenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 40% vs Hyriavyi 0%
Honcharenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko -3 · Hyriavyi -13
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Honcharenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hyriavyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 1.25 / Hyriavyi 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Honcharenko)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13245171
Honcharenko1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 110 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it87% 88 of 101
Hyriavyi3.75
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 13
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog24% won 28 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko9wins
AwayHyriavyi1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko100%8 of 8
AwayHyriavyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko8Hyriavyi2n = 10Honcharenko took 8 of 10
S2Honcharenko10Hyriavyi0n = 10Honcharenko took 10 of 10
S3Honcharenko6Hyriavyi4n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S4Honcharenko3Hyriavyi1n = 4Honcharenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoHyriavyiHoncharenko − HyriavyiBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match35.725.9+9.8per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoHyriavyiBasisWin rate · lifetime431 / 845 vs 111 / 35451%31.4%431 / 845 vs 111 / 354Avg sets wonper match2.01.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.632.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoHoncharenko 1.25/Hyriavyi 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hyriavyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 07:00S. Honcharenko29311871V. Hyriavyi3511211113
WSep 28 · 07:00S. Honcharenko43611411113V. Hyriavyi4011711742
WSep 25 · 06:30S. Honcharenko331111113V. Hyriavyi237880
WSep 22 · 08:30S. Honcharenko331111113V. Hyriavyi173770
WSep 8 · 08:30S. Honcharenko4211119113V. Hyriavyi33671191
WSep 3 · 06:30S. Honcharenko331111113V. Hyriavyi175750
WAug 31 · 09:00S. Honcharenko4211119113V. Hyriavyi32761181
WAug 19 · 09:00S. Honcharenko331111113V. Hyriavyi172690
WAug 7 · 08:00S. Honcharenko361312113V. Hyriavyi27111060
WJul 30 · 07:30S. Honcharenko331111113V. Hyriavyi185850
S. Honcharenko10
LOct 5 · 06:00S. Honcharenko2.0011118632M. Zavoloka1.73971111113LOct 2 · 16:00A. Danylov3.25211113113S. Honcharenko1.3311891182LOct 2 · 14:30R. Sveshnykov1.5711119113S. Honcharenko2.25761161WOct 2 · 13:00S. Zherykhin4.5077100S. Honcharenko1.171111123WOct 2 · 12:00O. Levytskyi2.107411101S. Honcharenko1.6711118123LOct 1 · 10:29S. Honcharenko1.615127101V. Matviichuk2.20111011123WOct 1 · 08:30V. Matviichuk2.1011114672S. Honcharenko1.67571111113LOct 1 · 07:30S. Honcharenko1.7359110M. Zavoloka2.001111133LOct 1 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko2.001111113S. Honcharenko1.735670WOct 1 · 05:30S. Honcharenko1.20111110113V. Khyzhnyak4.33851261
V. Hyriavyi10
LOct 5 · 08:00O. Badanin1.251111113V. Hyriavyi3.756650LOct 5 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.22121111123V. Hyriavyi4.001489101LOct 2 · 08:30V. Saakian1.171111123V. Hyriavyi4.5068100LOct 2 · 07:30V. Hyriavyi2.75891191Y. Urezchenko1.4011119113LOct 2 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.111111113V. Hyriavyi6.009870LOct 2 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi3.255730O. Badanin1.331111113LSep 28 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi2.63591141V. Matviichuk1.4411114113LSep 28 · 08:00V. Khyzhnyak1.611111113V. Hyriavyi2.206750LSep 28 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.25611411113V. Hyriavyi3.7511711742LSep 28 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.2881111113V. Hyriavyi3.50118791
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