TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Chovanec vs Lukas Velicka 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Pavel Chovanec
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111012116811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:08 and never touched: 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Velicka to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Chovanec above · Lukas Velicka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-9
Point 71 set 4, 7-9 · our read held Lukas Velicka at 56.0%
71 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Pavel Chovanec 0–1 Lukas Velicka Pavel Chovanec has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Velicka beat Chovanec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:0856.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Velicka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chovanec 1499 vs Velicka 1509
Velicka
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chovanec 60% vs Velicka 80%
Velicka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chovanec 30% vs Velicka 50%
Velicka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chovanec +1 · Velicka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Velicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velicka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChovanec 2.10 / Velicka 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Velicka)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243554
Chovanec2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 8 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Velicka1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 38 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it69% 22 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeChovanec0wins
AwayVelicka1wins
Velicka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricChovanecVelickaC − VBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.042.0−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChovanecVelickaBasisWin rate · lifetime23 / 55 vs 117 / 22941.8%51.1%23 / 55 vs 117 / 229Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VelickaChovanec 2.10/Velicka 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56%
Velicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Velicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 4 · 11:00P. Chovanec36119791L. Velicka4291111113
P. Chovanec10
WOct 4 · 12:30P. Chovanec1.611111123R. Adam2.2099100LOct 4 · 11:00P. Chovanec1.83119791L. Velicka1.8391111113WOct 4 · 10:00M. Blejchar1.9166111232P. Chovanec1.801111710113WOct 1 · 08:59P. Smetka1.83691171P. Chovanec1.8311114113LOct 1 · 08:00D. Machander1.5781111113P. Chovanec2.25118631LOct 1 · 07:00P. Osvald2.201111811113P. Chovanec1.6129111362LOct 1 · 06:30P. Chovanec1.671171181P. Smetka2.1013117113LSep 13 · 09:08P. Chovanec2.105410M. Blejchar1.661111113LSep 13 · 08:00P. Chovanec1.6111115672O. Hradil2.20991111113LSep 13 · 07:30A. Rinka1.801111113P. Chovanec1.918360
L. Velicka10
LOct 4 · 12:00M. Blejchar1.831111113L. Velicka1.838530WOct 4 · 11:00P. Chovanec1.83119791L. Velicka1.8391111113WOct 4 · 10:30L. Velicka1.801111113R. Adam1.919890WSep 27 · 09:00L. Velicka1.9111611113M. Blejchar1.80511581WSep 27 · 08:30L. Velicka1.801111113J. Hrabec1.916840LSep 27 · 07:00L. Velicka1.91123991O. Hradil1.80101111113LSep 27 · 06:00M. Blejchar1.83771611123L. Velicka1.831111148102LSep 26 · 09:00V. Adamczyk1.44913118113L. Velicka2.63111151182LSep 26 · 08:30D. Machander1.531115113L. Velicka2.3881350WSep 26 · 07:30L. Velicka2.63812611113V. Adamczyk1.44111011892
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