TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Sebastian Szostok vs Michal Oracz 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210115811115––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:03 and never touched: 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
1210115811115––
H2H Sebastian Szostok 11–8 Michal Oracz Michal Oracz has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:0354.4%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
clears by 0.3pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-8 in 19
Szostok
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1437 vs Oracz 1397
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Oracz 40%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 60% vs Oracz 40%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -1 · Oracz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Szostok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.85 / Oracz 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Szostok)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13242350
Szostok1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 71 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back33% 28 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Oracz1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 97 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it80% 78 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok7wins
AwayOracz3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok100%5 of 5
AwayOracz60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S2Szostok6Oracz4n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S3Szostok7Oracz3n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S4Szostok4Oracz2n = 6Szostok took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokOraczS − OBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.629.8+6.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime898 / 1553 vs 321 / 52457.8%61.3%898 / 1553 vs 321 / 524Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.85/Oracz 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.4%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 07:10S. Szostok4212118113M. Oracz311051151
LJun 14 · 11:55S. Szostok36791191M. Oracz3811115113
WJun 14 · 05:55S. Szostok43111011113M. Oracz27612631
WMay 31 · 13:55S. Szostok331111113M. Oracz161870
LMay 31 · 07:55S. Szostok37961391M. Oracz44111111113
WApr 25 · 13:55S. Szostok331111113M. Oracz176560
WApr 25 · 07:55S. Szostok46611711113M. Oracz4211811572
WMar 28 · 14:55S. Szostok4181111113M. Oracz27115651
LMar 28 · 08:55S. Szostok207580M. Oracz331111113
WFeb 15 · 14:10S. Szostok351311113M. Oracz2311660
S. Szostok10
LOct 4 · 06:20M. Malecha2.35111188113S. Szostok1.5077111172WSep 28 · 14:20W. Jozala3.2511461162S. Szostok1.33911116113LSep 28 · 13:30W. Buczynski2.63111414113S. Szostok1.445121691WSep 28 · 11:25P. Przewlocki2.50115612102S. Szostok1.506111110123WSep 28 · 10:35I. Szymanski4.3346111332S. Szostok1.201111911113LSep 28 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek2.501111173S. Szostok1.5078150WSep 28 · 08:10J. Kaczmarek2.50101070S. Szostok1.501212113WSep 28 · 07:20W. Buczynski2.63881171S. Szostok1.4411113113LSep 28 · 05:15P. Przewlocki2.381311118123S. Szostok1.53156911102WSep 28 · 04:30K. Hetnar1.7381111121S. Szostok2.0011613143
M. Oracz10
WOct 4 · 07:55L. Oracz2.208101181M. Oracz1.5711128113LOct 4 · 05:30P. Jedrzejak1.831411113M. Oracz1.8712990LSep 20 · 16:20M. Oracz1.95119681O. Jadach1.7581111113WSep 20 · 15:05M. Oracz1.501111113R. Wojcik2.407960LSep 20 · 13:55M. Oracz2.10915511102K. Slawinski1.601113119123WSep 20 · 12:45P. Mecik2.558860M. Oracz1.461111113WSep 20 · 11:55M. Oracz1.50411115113R. Adach2.3511361172LSep 20 · 10:20M. Oracz1.529690P. Mecik2.351111113WSep 20 · 09:05M. Oracz1.5011114113R. Wojcik2.40481191LSep 20 · 07:55M. Oracz2.108960K. Slawinski1.601111113
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