TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Krupnik vs Jiri Skalicky 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811811116811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:06 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJiri Skalicky to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Jiri Skalicky below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Jiri Skalicky at 54.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 7–12 Jiri Skalicky Jan Krupnik has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0654.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skalicky
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Skalicky
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1577 vs Skalicky 1646
Skalicky
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 0% vs Skalicky 60%
Skalicky
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 30% vs Skalicky 50%
Skalicky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -6 · Skalicky +1
Krupnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skalicky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 2.00 / Skalicky 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skalicky)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13240607
Krupnik2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog50% won 103 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back32% 29 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Skalicky1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 43 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it83% 24 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik4wins
AwaySkalicky6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkalicky leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik57.1%4 of 7
AwaySkalicky100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik7Skalicky3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S2Krupnik3Skalicky7n = 10Skalicky took 7 of 10
S3Krupnik4Skalicky6n = 10Skalicky took 6 of 10
S4Krupnik4Skalicky6n = 10Skalicky took 6 of 10
S5Krupnik2Skalicky2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikSkalickyK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.242.2−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikSkalickyBasisWin rate · lifetime487 / 946 vs 111 / 21651.5%51.4%487 / 946 vs 111 / 216Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkalickyKrupnik 2.00/Skalicky 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Skalicky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skalicky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 06:15J. Krupnik35881181J. Skalicky3911116113
LSep 19 · 09:15J. Krupnik4511681192J. Skalicky45611116113
WSep 19 · 07:45J. Krupnik48128611113J. Skalicky47101111872
LAug 22 · 21:08J. Krupnik49101111892J. Skalicky49127811113
LAug 22 · 17:40J. Krupnik341011851J. Skalicky4012611113
WAug 16 · 10:45J. Krupnik49119117113J. Skalicky4591191152
LAug 1 · 17:45J. Krupnik34119951J. Skalicky4291111113
WJul 19 · 08:43J. Krupnik3811124113J. Skalicky378101181
LJul 19 · 07:15J. Krupnik35119961J. Skalicky4181111113
WJul 11 · 13:45J. Krupnik45111211113J. Skalicky37814871
J. Krupnik10
LOct 4 · 07:45F. Chaloupka1.7311126113J. Krupnik2.006101191LOct 4 · 07:15J. Travnicek1.9151111113J. Krupnik1.80118781LOct 3 · 16:46K. Kleprlik1.871111113J. Krupnik1.835570LOct 3 · 15:45M. Macurak1.6111118113J. Krupnik2.20771151LOct 3 · 15:15K. Kleprlik1.8311101011123J. Krupnik1.83812125102LOct 3 · 14:15J. Krupnik1.731091191T. Krenek2.0012119113LOct 3 · 12:45J. Krupnik1.801156101M. Macurak1.9181111123LOct 3 · 12:15J. Krupnik1.53122120D. Velky Jr2.381411143WOct 3 · 10:45M. Macurak1.731151661J. Krupnik2.0091118113WOct 3 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73111121092J. Krupnik2.00961112113
J. Skalicky10
WOct 4 · 06:45F. Chaloupka1.8361111552J. Skalicky1.83119811113WSep 27 · 08:39J. Skalicky1.671111153A. Kanak2.1069130LSep 27 · 07:40J. Skalicky2.1081111872D. Stusek1.67113611113LSep 27 · 06:40J. Skalicky1.53951171A. Veliiev2.3811119113WSep 27 · 05:40J. Skalicky1.73691111113A. Kanak2.0011119732WSep 26 · 08:44A. Veliiev1.834870J. Skalicky1.831111113LSep 26 · 07:45J. Skalicky1.67119111172A. Veliiev2.10131159113LSep 26 · 06:45J. Skalicky1.738760D. Velky Jr2.001111113WSep 26 · 05:45J. Skalicky1.83126115113J. Travnicek1.83101161192WSep 20 · 16:43D. Skulina2.00101171192J. Skalicky1.73129118113
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