TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Maslovskyi vs Oleh Maksymkiv 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8115111181311113
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched: 81.8% is still 81.8%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
81.8%
81.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Maslovskyi above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 92 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 81.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Maslovskyi 6–59 Oleh Maksymkiv Oleksandr Maslovskyi has won 6 of their 65 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1981.8%Our read88.9%to break even at 1.125
short by 7.1pp88.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.125 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Maksymkiv
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-59 in 65
Maksymkiv
Wrong
gap of 53 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maslovskyi 1188 vs Maksymkiv 1239
Maksymkiv
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maslovskyi 60% vs Maksymkiv 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maslovskyi 70% vs Maksymkiv 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maslovskyi +2 · Maksymkiv +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% · Strong (leans Maksymkiv) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (60%) is below what odds imply (89%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaslovskyi 5.50 / Maksymkiv 1.125
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Maksymkiv)-7.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240557
Maslovskyi5.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 70 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back20% 31 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 92
Maksymkiv1.13
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 122 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 60 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it82% 85 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaslovskyi0wins
AwayMaksymkiv10wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 10–0, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaslovskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMaksymkiv100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maslovskyi2Maksymkiv8n = 10Maksymkiv took 8 of 10
S2Maslovskyi2Maksymkiv8n = 10Maksymkiv took 8 of 10
S3Maslovskyi4Maksymkiv6n = 10Maksymkiv took 6 of 10
S4Maslovskyi4Maksymkiv3n = 7Maslovskyi took 4 of 7
S5Maslovskyi0Maksymkiv5n = 5Maksymkiv took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaslovskyiMaksymkivMaslovskyi − MaksymkivBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.344.9−6.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaslovskyiMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 874 vs 402 / 77050.1%52.2%438 / 874 vs 402 / 770Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivMaslovskyi 5.50/Maksymkiv 1.13
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.8%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Maslovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi4294111172O. Maksymkiv48111196113
LOct 1 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi259790O. Maksymkiv331111113
LSep 30 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi3049170O. Maksymkiv411111193
LSep 25 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi411371381O. Maksymkiv48151111113
LSep 20 · 14:28O. Maslovskyi4178121132O. Maksymkiv521111109113
LSep 3 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4491111672O. Maksymkiv45116611113
LAug 31 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi39149881O. Maksymkiv45121111113
LAug 30 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi34119140O. Maksymkiv401311163
LAug 28 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi4291141172O. Maksymkiv45117115113
LAug 27 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi4515761162O. Maksymkiv521311116113
O. Maslovskyi10
WOct 2 · 17:55O. Maslovskyi2.38131311123H. Oliynyk1.5315113101WOct 2 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi1.36116101393A. Nikolenko3.00611121162LOct 2 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi2.506650M. Dunas1.501111113LOct 2 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi4.5094111172O. Maksymkiv1.17111196113WOct 2 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi3.00119611123V. Hel1.36811119102LOct 1 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi4.009790O. Maksymkiv1.221111113WOct 1 · 09:25V. Salivonchyk1.4491111692O. Maslovskyi2.63118511113WOct 1 · 07:25M. Treschetka2.506990O. Maslovskyi1.501111113WOct 1 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.75111311113M. Dunas1.40615681WOct 1 · 05:25A. Nikolenko3.0071111382O. Maslovskyi1.36115611113
O. Maksymkiv10
WOct 4 · 13:25V. Salivonchyk3.25591291O. Maksymkiv1.33111110113WOct 2 · 18:55M. Dunas2.5011115942O. Maksymkiv1.50671111113LOct 2 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv1.5751050V. Hel2.251112113LOct 2 · 15:25A. Nikolenko3.2515111012123O. Maksymkiv1.331331214102WOct 2 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi4.5094111172O. Maksymkiv1.17111196113WOct 2 · 12:25H. Oliynyk1.671011971O. Maksymkiv2.1012911113WOct 1 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi4.009790O. Maksymkiv1.221111113WOct 1 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.61651111113M. Dunas2.2011116382WOct 1 · 07:55A. Nikolenko3.25710111192O. Maksymkiv1.33111256113LOct 1 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.4491111113O. Maksymkiv2.63115781
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