TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Aristarkhov vs Dmitro Kuzmenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171315117911116
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched: 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Aristarkhov above · Dmitro Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 101 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 70.3%
101 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Aristarkhov 17–7 Dmitro Kuzmenko Dmitro Kuzmenko has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5870.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-7 in 24
Aristarkhov
Correct
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aristarkhov 1644 vs Kuzmenko 1455
Aristarkhov
Correct
both rated, 190 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aristarkhov 80% vs Kuzmenko 40%
Aristarkhov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aristarkhov 60% vs Kuzmenko 40%
Aristarkhov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aristarkhov +1 · Kuzmenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Aristarkhov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAristarkhov 1.40 / Kuzmenko 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Aristarkhov)-1.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240248
Aristarkhov1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 97 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it84% 72 of 86
Kuzmenko2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 110 of 311
Down 0–1, comes back17% 29 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAristarkhov7wins
AwayKuzmenko3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAristarkhov75%6 of 8
AwayKuzmenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aristarkhov8Kuzmenko2n = 10Aristarkhov took 8 of 10
S2Aristarkhov5Kuzmenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Aristarkhov6Kuzmenko4n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S4Aristarkhov5Kuzmenko2n = 7Aristarkhov took 5 of 7
S5Aristarkhov1Kuzmenko2n = 3Kuzmenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAristarkhovKuzmenkoA − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.435.3+5.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAristarkhovKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime306 / 561 vs 404 / 96254.6%42%306 / 561 vs 404 / 962Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovAristarkhov 1.40/Kuzmenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 27 · 08:30S. Aristarkhov3911116113D. Kuzmenko35871191
LSep 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov4311671182D. Kuzmenko45711115113
LAug 22 · 16:00S. Aristarkhov351111761D. Kuzmenko3813311113
WAug 16 · 16:00S. Aristarkhov43111011113D. Kuzmenko35912681
WAug 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov331111113D. Kuzmenko149140
WAug 3 · 07:30S. Aristarkhov3912511113D. Kuzmenko351011681
WJul 25 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov51119911113D. Kuzmenko4891111892
LJul 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov48119117102D. Kuzmenko47611711123
WJul 4 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov331111113D. Kuzmenko217860
S. Aristarkhov10
WOct 4 · 14:00S. Aristarkhov1.80811911113O. Syksa1.9111811932WSep 27 · 10:30A. Lushchyk1.4484111172S. Aristarkhov2.63111136113LSep 27 · 09:30S. Aristarkhov1.839990M. Hubenko1.831111113WSep 27 · 08:30S. Aristarkhov1.3611116113D. Kuzmenko3.00871191WSep 27 · 07:00S. Aristarkhov1.251111113O. Ziakun3.757550WSep 27 · 05:00S. Aristarkhov1.73911611113O. Syksa2.0011311922LSep 20 · 11:00S. Aristarkhov1.80311119112O. Syksa1.91118711133WSep 20 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov2.2578111162S. Aristarkhov1.57111188113LSep 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov1.3611671182D. Kuzmenko3.00711115113WSep 20 · 07:00O. Ziakun3.751110831S. Aristarkhov1.2581211113
D. Kuzmenko10
LOct 4 · 14:30M. Hubenko1.36111152D. Kuzmenko3.007781LOct 4 · 12:00A. Vasylets1.4411811113D. Kuzmenko2.63511951WOct 2 · 11:30S. Miroshnychenko2.50711781D. Kuzmenko1.5011911113LOct 2 · 10:00D. Kuzmenko1.44111241072O. Lyman2.638101112113LOct 2 · 08:00O. Ziakun2.00511411113D. Kuzmenko1.7311911782WOct 2 · 06:00O. Syksa1.734870D. Kuzmenko2.001111113LOct 2 · 05:00D. Prylepa1.57611112113D. Kuzmenko2.2511681152LOct 1 · 11:30D. Kuzmenko3.00121111552M. Hubenko1.361013911113LSep 27 · 08:30S. Aristarkhov1.3611116113D. Kuzmenko3.00871191WSep 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov1.3611671182D. Kuzmenko3.00711115113
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