TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Aristarkhov vs Oleksandr Syksa 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811118911119113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:59 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Aristarkhov above · Oleksandr Syksa below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 92 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 54.3%
92 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Aristarkhov 22–19 Oleksandr Syksa Oleksandr Syksa has won 19 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5954.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-19 in 41
Aristarkhov
Correct
gap of 3 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aristarkhov 1650 vs Syksa 1518
Aristarkhov
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aristarkhov 80% vs Syksa 20%
Aristarkhov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aristarkhov 70% vs Syksa 50%
Aristarkhov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aristarkhov +2 · Syksa -3
Syksa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Aristarkhov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Syksa form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAristarkhov 1.80 / Syksa 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Aristarkhov)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240013
Aristarkhov1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 97 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it84% 72 of 86
Syksa1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 57 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back14% 19 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAristarkhov4wins
AwaySyksa6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSyksa leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAristarkhov66.7%2 of 3
AwaySyksa71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aristarkhov3Syksa7n = 10Syksa took 7 of 10
S2Aristarkhov6Syksa4n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S3Aristarkhov6Syksa4n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S4Aristarkhov4Syksa4n = 8split evenly
S5Aristarkhov1Syksa2n = 3Syksa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAristarkhovSyksaA − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.7+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAristarkhovSyksaBasisWin rate · lifetime302 / 549 vs 593 / 112455%52.8%302 / 549 vs 593 / 1124Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovAristarkhov 1.80/Syksa 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 27 · 05:00S. Aristarkhov48911611113O. Syksa3611311922
LSep 20 · 11:00S. Aristarkhov45311119112O. Syksa50118711133
LSep 13 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov37981191O. Syksa3511112113
LAug 23 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov371011971O. Syksa4112711113
WAug 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov45111211113O. Syksa37814871
LAug 3 · 10:30S. Aristarkhov4161111672O. Syksa50118911113
LJul 26 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov2891090O. Syksa341112113
WJul 19 · 06:00S. Aristarkhov331111113O. Syksa215790
WJul 17 · 09:30S. Aristarkhov4181111113O. Syksa35116991
S. Aristarkhov10
WOct 4 · 13:00S. Aristarkhov1.401113119113D. Kuzmenko2.7571571162WSep 27 · 10:30A. Lushchyk1.4484111172S. Aristarkhov2.63111136113LSep 27 · 09:30S. Aristarkhov1.839990M. Hubenko1.831111113WSep 27 · 08:30S. Aristarkhov1.3611116113D. Kuzmenko3.00871191WSep 27 · 07:00S. Aristarkhov1.251111113O. Ziakun3.757550WSep 27 · 05:00S. Aristarkhov1.73911611113O. Syksa2.0011311922LSep 20 · 11:00S. Aristarkhov1.80311119112O. Syksa1.91118711133WSep 20 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov2.2578111162S. Aristarkhov1.57111188113LSep 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov1.3611671182D. Kuzmenko3.00711115113WSep 20 · 07:00O. Ziakun3.751110831S. Aristarkhov1.2581211113
O. Syksa10
LOct 4 · 15:00A. Vasylets1.501111103O. Syksa2.507790LOct 4 · 12:30M. Hubenko1.361111113O. Syksa3.008660LOct 2 · 10:30O. Syksa1.4412121071D. Prylepa2.63141012113LOct 2 · 09:00O. Syksa1.57117991O. Ziakun2.2551111113WOct 2 · 07:30O. Syksa1.30111169113S. Miroshnychenko3.4085111152LOct 2 · 06:00O. Syksa1.734870D. Kuzmenko2.001111113WOct 2 · 04:30O. Syksa1.2061111143O. Lyman4.331146121WOct 1 · 11:00O. Syksa1.3011117113S. Miroshnychenko3.40961151LSep 27 · 05:00S. Aristarkhov1.73911611113O. Syksa2.0011311922WSep 20 · 11:00S. Aristarkhov1.80311119112O. Syksa1.91118711133
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