TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Karol Sulkowski vs Michal Skorski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101191012119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:48 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Sulkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
84 points played in total.
Set by set
12101191012119––
H2H Karol Sulkowski 10–7 Michal Skorski Michal Skorski has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sulkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Sulkowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1288 vs Skorski 1295
Skorski
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 40% vs Skorski 60%
Skorski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 40% vs Skorski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski +1 · Skorski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sulkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 1.80 / Skorski 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sulkowski)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13240061
Sulkowski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 170 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it78% 130 of 166
Skorski1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 85 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski6wins
AwaySkorski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSulkowski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski100%5 of 5
AwaySkorski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski5Skorski5n = 10split evenly
S2Sulkowski7Skorski3n = 10Sulkowski took 7 of 10
S3Sulkowski4Skorski6n = 10Skorski took 6 of 10
S4Sulkowski5Skorski5n = 10split evenly
S5Sulkowski3Skorski2n = 5Sulkowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiSkorskiSulkowski − SkorskiBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.241.0+1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiSkorskiBasisWin rate · lifetime642 / 1303 vs 727 / 150649.3%48.3%642 / 1303 vs 727 / 1506Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiSulkowski 1.80/Skorski 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 15:25K. Sulkowski4111811113M. Skorski31811571
LJun 2 · 10:30K. Sulkowski31711581M. Skorski3911611113
LMay 26 · 09:45K. Sulkowski511081112102M. Skorski541211910123
WMay 20 · 06:40K. Sulkowski50111189113M. Skorski4468111182
LMay 20 · 04:10K. Sulkowski4061111932M. Skorski48119611113
WApr 24 · 11:20K. Sulkowski47137511113M. Skorski46111111762
WMar 31 · 09:20K. Sulkowski4211119113M. Skorski29671151
LFeb 5 · 10:45K. Sulkowski34911681M. Skorski3811511113
WFeb 3 · 13:35K. Sulkowski44111156113M. Skorski4799111172
WFeb 3 · 07:40K. Sulkowski4291111113M. Skorski34116981
K. Sulkowski10
WOct 3 · 17:45K. Sulkowski1.771211113D. Poloszczanski1.9310780LOct 3 · 16:15K. Sulkowski1.688149111A. Eliasz2.05111211133WOct 3 · 15:00K. Sulkowski1.83111187113M. Trela1.8788111182LOct 3 · 00:10K. Sulkowski2.40681171J. Glanowski1.5011117113LOct 2 · 23:20K. Sulkowski1.854870M. Trela1.851111113WOct 2 · 21:55K. Sulkowski2.5211911113J. Lamperski1.47811471LOct 2 · 21:30K. Sulkowski1.8011611432D. Poloszczanski1.90611611113LOct 2 · 20:30M. Trela1.781111113K. Sulkowski1.917960LOct 2 · 19:20K. Sulkowski2.87119991J. Glanowski1.3781111113WOct 2 · 18:10P. Strus2.352149121K. Sulkowski1.53111211143
M. Skorski10
LOct 3 · 19:40A. Eliasz1.801111113M. Skorski1.853570LOct 3 · 18:10M. Skorski2.205780A. Mugowski1.601111113WOct 3 · 16:35M. Skorski1.801111113M. Trela1.869860WOct 3 · 15:50D. Poloszczanski2.05881161M. Skorski1.6611116113WOct 3 · 14:15M. Lukaszewski2.051451151M. Skorski1.7016119113LOct 3 · 13:25P. Maruszak1.75155914123M. Skorski1.9513111112102LOct 3 · 11:20T. Piotrowski1.621111123M. Skorski2.1541100LOct 3 · 10:30M. Sinicki1.801111118113M. Skorski1.9113671192LOct 3 · 09:00K. Makowski1.9591111113M. Skorski1.70119971WSep 30 · 00:10M. Skorski1.761112113J. Pruszkowski1.9691050
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.