TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dalibor Velky Jr vs Jan Skvrna 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11510121214911––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched: 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 84 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Jan Skvrna at 57.8%
84 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 10–20 Jan Skvrna Dalibor Velky Jr has won 10 of their 30 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Skvrna beat Velky Jr 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:0257.8%Our read45.5%to break even at 2.20
clears by 12.3pp45.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.20 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Velky Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-20 in 30
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 10 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velky Jr 1619 vs Skvrna 1684
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velky Jr 80% vs Skvrna 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velky Jr 50% vs Skvrna 70%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Velky Jr +1 · Skvrna +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Skvrna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelky Jr 1.615 / Skvrna 2.20
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Skvrna)+12.3pp
TT Cup · #13238424
Velky Jr1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 67 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it70% 51 of 73
Skvrna2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 13 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back24% 4 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVelky Jr4wins
AwaySkvrna6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelky Jr60%3 of 5
AwaySkvrna80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velky Jr5Skvrna5n = 10split evenly
S2Velky Jr8Skvrna2n = 10Velky Jr took 8 of 10
S3Velky Jr4Skvrna6n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S4Velky Jr4Skvrna4n = 8split evenly
S5Velky Jr0Skvrna3n = 3Skvrna took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVelky JrSkvrnaV − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.240.6−2.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelky JrSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 594 vs 495 / 85449.7%58%295 / 594 vs 495 / 854Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaVelky Jr 1.61/Skvrna 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 11:15D. Velky Jr4591171172J. Skvrna51119119113
WSep 27 · 16:40D. Velky Jr351113113J. Skvrna2661190
LSep 27 · 14:40D. Velky Jr3611112572J. Skvrna529111011113
WSep 22 · 09:45D. Velky Jr4113116113J. Skvrna381191171
LSep 8 · 10:40D. Velky Jr4561191362J. Skvrna481141111113
WSep 4 · 08:40D. Velky Jr341111123J. Skvrna2376100
LSep 4 · 05:40D. Velky Jr321110741J. Skvrna4171211113
LAug 11 · 09:10D. Velky Jr33711691J. Skvrna4111811113
WAug 11 · 06:40D. Velky Jr4161111133J. Skvrna361168111
LAug 7 · 10:40D. Velky Jr401811651J. Skvrna5020811113
D. Velky Jr10
WOct 3 · 12:15J. Krupnik1.53122120D. Velky Jr2.381411143LOct 3 · 11:15D. Velky Jr2.2091171172J. Skvrna1.61119119113WOct 3 · 09:45M. Macurak1.67811231D. Velky Jr2.1011711113WOct 3 · 09:25D. Velky Jr2.7591211113B. Moravec1.401110351WOct 3 · 08:15D. Velky Jr1.671212511113P. Marsalek2.10101411682WOct 3 · 06:45B. Moravec1.2811981172D. Velky Jr3.50311113113LOct 3 · 06:15F. Chaloupka1.5011911113D. Velky Jr2.50911591LOct 1 · 16:35F. Chaloupka1.611111113D. Velky Jr2.208760LOct 1 · 16:10D. Velky Jr2.389840K. Kleprlik1.531111113LOct 1 · 14:40B. Moravec1.361111113D. Velky Jr3.009570
J. Skvrna10
WOct 3 · 11:45M. Macurak2.00571661J. Skvrna1.73111114113WOct 3 · 11:15D. Velky Jr2.2091171172J. Skvrna1.61119119113LOct 3 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73111121092J. Krupnik2.00961112113WOct 2 · 16:45A. Baros2.506580J. Skvrna1.461111113WOct 2 · 16:15J. Skvrna1.831211113J. Rak1.8310960LOct 2 · 14:45F. Sikora1.44125117113J. Skvrna2.63101131172LOct 2 · 14:15A. Baros1.80711711113J. Skvrna1.9111611862WSep 30 · 13:13J. Skvrna1.8081111113T. Krenek1.91117951WSep 30 · 11:45L. Slavik1.914880J. Skvrna1.801111113WSep 30 · 11:15L. Kantor2.251011441J. Skvrna1.5712511113
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