TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Borek Moravec vs Dalibor Velky Jr 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:37 and never touched: 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Borek Moravec at 73.2%
54 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 6–1 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3773.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Moravec
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1779 vs Velky Jr 1589
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 190 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 100% vs Velky Jr 40%
Moravec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 90% vs Velky Jr 50%
Moravec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +7 · Velky Jr -2
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.363 / Velky Jr 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Moravec)-0.2pp
TT Cup · #13226923
Moravec1.36
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 114 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it100% 52 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it90% 81 of 90
Velky Jr3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 116 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMoravec6wins
AwayVelky Jr1wins
3 of 7 to a deciderMoravec leads 6–1, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec100%5 of 5
AwayVelky Jrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec5Velky Jr2n = 7Moravec took 5 of 7
S2Moravec2Velky Jr5n = 7Velky Jr took 5 of 7
S3Moravec5Velky Jr2n = 7Moravec took 5 of 7
S4Moravec6Velky Jr1n = 7Moravec took 6 of 7
S5Moravec2Velky Jr1n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home457%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMoravecVelky JrM − VBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match44.637.0+7.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecVelky JrBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 472 vs 290 / 58458.3%49.7%275 / 472 vs 290 / 584Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.36/Velky Jr 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 30 · 17:28B. Moravec51111198123D. Velky Jr48881111102
WJul 13 · 17:15B. Moravec4111811113D. Velky Jr29511581
LJul 13 · 14:45B. Moravec4471181172D. Velky Jr43113117113
WJun 26 · 17:15B. Moravec51891112113D. Velky Jr47111171082
WJun 26 · 13:40B. Moravec4011711113D. Velky Jr30911461
WMay 1 · 07:15B. Moravec45131011113D. Velky Jr331112551
WApr 28 · 13:40B. Moravec4011711113D. Velky Jr29711651
B. Moravec10
WOct 1 · 13:40B. Moravec1.361111113K. Kleprlik3.002590WSep 30 · 17:14B. Moravec1.6761111113D. Stusek2.10118941WSep 30 · 15:45B. Moravec1.531111113F. Chaloupka2.389770WSep 30 · 14:45B. Moravec1.83116128123J. Pribyl1.834111011102WSep 30 · 13:45B. Moravec1.8391111123D. Stusek1.831147101WSep 24 · 17:10D. Stusek1.736117121B. Moravec2.0011211143WSep 24 · 15:40B. Moravec1.8311611113J. Pribyl1.83711971LSep 24 · 14:40B. Moravec1.50541161D. Stusek2.5011119113WSep 24 · 13:40B. Moravec1.531111113K. Kleprlik2.388550WSep 22 · 16:55F. Chaloupka2.20118491B. Moravec1.6191111113
D. Velky Jr10
LOct 1 · 14:10F. Chaloupka1.67111511133D. Velky Jr2.107175111LOct 1 · 13:05B. Mrowetz1.9151111113D. Velky Jr1.80116171WOct 1 · 11:40D. Velky Jr2.201112113B. Mrowetz1.6181090WOct 1 · 10:40D. Velky Jr1.911511133L. Dzida1.80138110LOct 1 · 09:40D. Velky Jr1.67911190T. Kindl2.101113213WSep 30 · 09:14D. Velky Jr1.91114911153L. Kantor1.80911113132WSep 30 · 07:45D. Velky Jr1.671211113I. Heuman2.1010970WSep 30 · 06:45D. Velky Jr2.3811115113T. Krenek1.53761141LSep 30 · 05:45D. Velky Jr2.1011911282L. Kantor1.67511611113LSep 28 · 20:48J. Krupnik1.501616113D. Velky Jr2.50141450
Upcoming Matches
B. Moravec
Nothing scheduled
D. Velky Jr
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