TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatolii Kovalenko vs Serhii Solomko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111210119411117
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:52 and never touched: 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeSerhii Solomko to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnatolii Kovalenko above · Serhii Solomko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Serhii Solomko at 62.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Kovalenko 16–17 Serhii Solomko Anatolii Kovalenko has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5262.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Solomko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-17 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1469 vs Solomko 1573
Solomko
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 60% vs Solomko 100%
Solomko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 70% vs Solomko 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko -1 · Solomko +6
Solomko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Solomko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Solomko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 2.375 / Solomko 1.533
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Solomko)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234869
Kovalenko2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 35 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back24% 12 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Solomko1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 120 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it89% 59 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it80% 85 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko4wins
AwaySolomko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSolomko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko57.1%4 of 7
AwaySolomko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko7Solomko3n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S2Kovalenko4Solomko6n = 10Solomko took 6 of 10
S3Kovalenko9Solomko1n = 10Kovalenko took 9 of 10
S4Kovalenko1Solomko4n = 5Solomko took 4 of 5
S5Kovalenko0Solomko4n = 4Solomko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoSolomkoK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.038.4+0.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoSolomkoBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 562 vs 540 / 104053%51.9%298 / 562 vs 540 / 1040Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SolomkoKovalenko 2.38/Solomko 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.6%
Solomko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 30 · 11:30A. Kovalenko331111113S. Solomko195680
WSep 29 · 12:05A. Kovalenko331111113S. Solomko193790
LSep 11 · 13:30A. Kovalenko206680S. Solomko331111113
LAug 31 · 08:35A. Kovalenko48611155112S. Solomko571191311133
WAug 24 · 06:30A. Kovalenko331111113S. Solomko249960
LAug 18 · 12:05A. Kovalenko46114129102S. Solomko539111011123
LAug 17 · 09:05A. Kovalenko4611911962S. Solomko51911911113
WAug 1 · 16:30A. Kovalenko4514812113S. Solomko3712111041
LJul 29 · 11:35A. Kovalenko47136111072S. Solomko531111812113
A. Kovalenko10
LOct 3 · 15:00O. Osadchyi1.73111112A. Kovalenko2.008810LOct 3 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.731111118113A. Kovalenko2.0081391172WSep 30 · 11:30A. Kovalenko2.001111113S. Solomko1.735680WSep 30 · 09:30E. Populovskyi1.80118101152A. Kovalenko1.91611124113WSep 30 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.671191041A. Kovalenko2.1071112113LSep 30 · 06:30A. Kovalenko2.637670O. Volynets1.441111113LSep 30 · 05:30O. Shyshman2.201313113A. Kovalenko1.61111150WSep 29 · 12:05S. Solomko1.503790A. Kovalenko2.501111113WSep 29 · 10:35A. Kovalenko3.751111113O. Volynets1.258980WSep 29 · 08:35O. Lipeiko1.61119111172A. Kovalenko2.20611513113
S. Solomko10
LOct 3 · 16:00A. Martyniuk2.001111113S. Solomko1.739410WOct 3 · 12:00O. Osadchyi2.5081010S. Solomko1.501112113WOct 1 · 10:33E. Populovskyi3.7533100S. Solomko1.251111123WOct 1 · 09:35O. Leonenko2.10721211S. Solomko1.67111110113WOct 1 · 08:05S. Solomko1.2891111113E. Populovskyi3.50115771WOct 1 · 06:35S. Solomko1.80114611123A. Martyniuk1.91411113102WOct 1 · 05:05S. Solomko1.6191111113O. Osadchyi2.20118411LSep 30 · 11:30A. Kovalenko2.001111113S. Solomko1.735680WSep 30 · 10:00S. Solomko2.201111113O. Volynets1.613960LSep 29 · 12:05S. Solomko1.503790A. Kovalenko2.501111113
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