TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Senyk vs Oleksandr Bolnyh 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119119411118––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:17 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bolnyh to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Senyk above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Oleksandr Bolnyh at 65.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Senyk 17–17 Oleksandr Bolnyh Dead even across their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 2–8Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1765.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bolnyh
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-17 in 34
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Senyk 665 vs Bolnyh 777
Bolnyh
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Senyk 20% vs Bolnyh 40%
Bolnyh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Senyk 50% vs Bolnyh 30%
Senyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Senyk -3 · Bolnyh -1
Senyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Bolnyh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bolnyh form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSenyk 2.625 / Bolnyh 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Bolnyh)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234751
Senyk2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog18% won 20 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back5% 4 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Bolnyh1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 46 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it81% 38 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSenyk2wins
AwayBolnyh8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBolnyh leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSenyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayBolnyh100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Senyk3Bolnyh7n = 10Bolnyh took 7 of 10
S2Senyk6Bolnyh4n = 10Senyk took 6 of 10
S3Senyk6Bolnyh4n = 10Senyk took 6 of 10
S4Senyk1Bolnyh7n = 8Bolnyh took 7 of 8
S5Senyk0Bolnyh3n = 3Bolnyh took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSenykBolnyhS − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.441.0−3.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSenykBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 363 vs 92 / 20742.2%44.4%153 / 363 vs 92 / 207Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BolnyhSenyk 2.63/Bolnyh 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Bolnyh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Senyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 15:25M. Senyk5091511872O. Bolnyh551113911113
LSep 19 · 07:55M. Senyk385149101O. Bolnyh46111211123
LSep 18 · 14:55M. Senyk2789100O. Bolnyh341111123
LSep 5 · 06:25M. Senyk33771181O. Bolnyh3911116113
LAug 13 · 11:25M. Senyk351161081O. Bolnyh3841112113
LAug 12 · 12:55M. Senyk34714581O. Bolnyh45111211113
WAug 7 · 05:55M. Senyk331111113O. Bolnyh215790
WAug 6 · 05:25M. Senyk4211812113O. Bolnyh399111091
LAug 5 · 13:25M. Senyk3621111662O. Bolnyh49119711113
LJul 18 · 06:25M. Senyk46711117102O. Bolnyh44118211123
M. Senyk10
LOct 1 · 18:25M. Senyk4.50611491P. Melnichuk1.1711711113LOct 1 · 16:25O. Martynenko1.1711611113M. Senyk4.50911861LOct 1 · 15:25M. Senyk2.7591511872O. Bolnyh1.401113911113WOct 1 · 14:25I. Fokin1.2071116592M. Senyk4.331181411113LOct 1 · 12:55M. Senyk6.5081080Y. Shcherbak1.101112113WSep 27 · 17:55V. Moroz3.7511611652M. Senyk1.25911611113WSep 27 · 16:55M. Senyk1.171112611113A. Lanchut4.50110111392LSep 27 · 15:53M. Senyk2.505121191V. Slobodian1.5011145113WSep 27 · 14:25M. Senyk1.3311126993O. Kulbach3.25710111182WSep 27 · 12:25M. Senyk1.61119911113V. Sydorchuk2.2091111972
O. Bolnyh10
LOct 3 · 06:25O. Bolnyh2.636980V. Slobodian1.441111113LOct 2 · 11:25I. Fokin1.2011158113O. Bolnyh4.339131141WOct 2 · 09:55O. Bolnyh5.00911119113Y. Shcherbak1.1411891172LOct 2 · 07:55P. Melnichuk1.8311811113O. Bolnyh1.83711531WOct 2 · 05:55O. Martynenko1.616380O. Bolnyh2.201111113LOct 2 · 04:55B. Pyrtyk1.3611117123O. Bolnyh3.009911101LOct 1 · 18:55Y. Shcherbak1.171111113O. Bolnyh4.507960LOct 1 · 17:25O. Bolnyh1.6711881162P. Melnichuk2.10511119113WOct 1 · 15:25M. Senyk2.7591511872O. Bolnyh1.401113911113LOct 1 · 13:25O. Martynenko1.67121111123O. Bolnyh2.101468101
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