TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Osadchyi vs Eduard Populovskyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
131112101012119––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:13 and never touched: 77.4% is still 77.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
77.4%
77.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 88 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 77.4%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 22–6 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 6 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:1377.4%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 2.6pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Osadchyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-6 in 28
Osadchyi
Correct
gap of 16 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1430 vs Populovskyi 1372
Osadchyi
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 20% vs Populovskyi 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 30% vs Populovskyi 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi -1 · Populovskyi -4
Populovskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Osadchyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.25 / Populovskyi 3.75
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Osadchyi)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234483
Osadchyi1.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 110 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it97% 57 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it79% 78 of 99
Populovskyi3.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 51 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back23% 21 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi8wins
AwayPopulovskyi2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi100%8 of 8
AwayPopulovskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi8Populovskyi2n = 10Osadchyi took 8 of 10
S2Osadchyi7Populovskyi3n = 10Osadchyi took 7 of 10
S3Osadchyi9Populovskyi1n = 10Osadchyi took 9 of 10
S4Osadchyi2Populovskyi2n = 4split evenly
S5Osadchyi2Populovskyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiPopulovskyiO − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.428.1+10.3per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 862 vs 338 / 70051.7%48.3%446 / 862 vs 338 / 700Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.25/Populovskyi 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.4%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Osadchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 09:05O. Osadchyi331111113E. Populovskyi217680
WSep 30 · 10:30O. Osadchyi331111113E. Populovskyi238870
WSep 21 · 12:50O. Osadchyi45115117113E. Populovskyi4271151182
WSep 20 · 09:50O. Osadchyi331111113E. Populovskyi159330
WSep 15 · 05:05O. Osadchyi331111113E. Populovskyi249870
LSep 13 · 07:20O. Osadchyi44107111152E. Populovskyi41121134113
WSep 3 · 04:30O. Osadchyi50119118113E. Populovskyi3831161172
WSep 2 · 05:05O. Osadchyi331111113E. Populovskyi169340
LAug 30 · 05:50O. Osadchyi47811111162E. Populovskyi47119133113
WAug 29 · 14:00O. Osadchyi331111113E. Populovskyi144730
O. Osadchyi10
WOct 3 · 15:00O. Osadchyi1.73111112A. Kovalenko2.008810LOct 3 · 12:00O. Osadchyi2.5081010S. Solomko1.501112113WOct 1 · 09:05E. Populovskyi3.507680O. Osadchyi1.281111113LOct 1 · 07:35A. Martyniuk1.2511911113O. Osadchyi3.75611421LOct 1 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.001111113O. Osadchyi1.735890LOct 1 · 05:05S. Solomko1.6191111113O. Osadchyi2.20118411WSep 30 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.301111113E. Populovskyi3.408870WSep 30 · 09:00O. Osadchyi2.381112113O. Shyshman1.5331040LSep 30 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.671191041A. Kovalenko2.1071112113LSep 30 · 06:00O. Osadchyi2.20861151S. Solomko1.6111119113
E. Populovskyi10
LOct 3 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.00111132103E. Populovskyi1.7347111162LOct 3 · 12:30A. Martyniuk1.441111113E. Populovskyi2.636990LOct 1 · 10:33E. Populovskyi3.7533100S. Solomko1.251111123LOct 1 · 09:05E. Populovskyi3.507680O. Osadchyi1.281111113LOct 1 · 08:05S. Solomko1.2891111113E. Populovskyi3.50115771WOct 1 · 07:05O. Leonenko1.802580E. Populovskyi1.911111113WOct 1 · 05:35A. Martyniuk1.4011551172E. Populovskyi2.75911117113LSep 30 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.301111113E. Populovskyi3.408870LSep 30 · 09:30E. Populovskyi1.80118101152A. Kovalenko1.91611124113LSep 30 · 08:30E. Populovskyi2.25111131252O. Volynets1.57861114113
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