TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ludek Madle vs Jaroslav Strnad 1961 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
114611211911––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:59 and never touched: 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeLudek Madle to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLudek Madle above · Jaroslav Strnad 1961 below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 65 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Ludek Madle at 71.6%
65 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Madle 1–2 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 Ludek Madle has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5971.6%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 1.8pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Madle
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Madle 1191 vs Strnad 1026
Madle
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madle 100% vs Strnad 20%
Madle
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madle 80% vs Strnad 20%
Madle
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Madle +5 · Strnad +1
Madle
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Madle) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadle 1.363 / Strnad 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Madle)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233218
Madle1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 70 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it73% 52 of 71
Strnad3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog26% won 29 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMadle1wins
AwayStrnad2wins
Strnad leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madle2Strnad1n = 3Madle took 2 of 3
S2Madle1Strnad2n = 3Strnad took 2 of 3
S3Madle1Strnad2n = 3Strnad took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMadleStrnadM − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match30.331.0−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadleStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 542 vs 138 / 33748%41%260 / 542 vs 138 / 337Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MadleMadle 1.36/Strnad 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.6%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 3 · 07:00L. Madle28116291J. Strnad3741111113
WSep 28 · 08:30L. Madle331111113J. Strnad176470
LSep 24 · 08:30L. Madle3015780J. Strnad391711113
L. Madle10
WOct 3 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.6361180L. Madle1.441113113WOct 1 · 13:30L. Madle1.6581113113J. Cernik2.101191181WOct 1 · 12:30C. Havrda3.002690L. Madle1.361111113WOct 1 · 11:30L. Madle1.5713111114183J. Cernik2.25159916162WOct 1 · 10:30L. Novotny1.8086110L. Madle1.911111133LSep 28 · 09:30L. Madle1.4311661142J. Martinek2.60711115113WSep 28 · 08:30L. Madle1.571111113J. Strnad2.256470WSep 28 · 07:00L. Madle1.4061111113M. Marjan2.75115851WSep 28 · 06:00J. Martinek1.91611661L. Madle1.8011911113LSep 24 · 09:30T. Kucera1.851411113L. Madle1.8512240
J. Strnad10
WOct 3 · 06:30J. Strnad1.44111112113P. Serak2.63871441LSep 28 · 09:00M. Marjan1.401612113J. Strnad2.75141060LSep 28 · 08:30L. Madle1.571111113J. Strnad2.256470LSep 28 · 07:30J. Strnad4.00114651J. Martinek1.2271111113LSep 28 · 06:30M. Marjan1.531111113J. Strnad2.387850LSep 24 · 08:59J. Strnad2.50119881J. Pantak1.5081111113WSep 24 · 08:30L. Madle1.4415780J. Strnad2.631711113LSep 24 · 07:30J. Strnad3.7507110T. Kucera1.251111133LSep 24 · 06:30J. Pantak1.5791111113J. Strnad2.25114841LSep 18 · 13:00M. Marjan1.7341111113J. Strnad2.00119361
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