TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Ruzicka vs Erik Mares 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1416118911511––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:26 and never touched: 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeJiri Ruzicka to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Ruzicka above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 85 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Jiri Ruzicka at 55.5%
85 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Ruzicka 8–9 Erik Mares Jiri Ruzicka has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Ruzicka beat Mares 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2655.5%Our read47.6%to break even at 2.10
clears by 7.9pp47.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.10 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1862 vs Mares 1807
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 80% vs Mares 40%
Ruzicka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 80% vs Mares 40%
Ruzicka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +2 · Mares -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Ruzicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 2.10 / Mares 1.666
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Ruzicka)+7.9pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13233073
Ruzicka2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 130 of 333
Down 0–1, comes back20% 41 of 210
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 112
Mares1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 150 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it87% 96 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it72% 128 of 179
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka5wins
AwayMares5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzickan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMares62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S2Ruzicka5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S3Ruzicka7Mares3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S4Ruzicka4Mares5n = 9Mares took 5 of 9
S5Ruzicka3Mares2n = 5Ruzicka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaMaresR − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match44.546.8−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime701 / 1420 vs 604 / 121049.4%49.9%701 / 1420 vs 604 / 1210Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 2.10/Mares 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.5%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 13:30J. Ruzicka391411951E. Mares4616811113
WOct 2 · 12:00J. Ruzicka4111811113E. Mares32411891
WOct 2 · 08:00J. Ruzicka46101312113E. Mares4112111081
WSep 17 · 00:00J. Ruzicka571015129113E. Mares551213101192
WSep 3 · 12:59J. Ruzicka511111711113E. Mares4571311952
LSep 3 · 11:30J. Ruzicka3961113092E. Mares531191111113
WAug 1 · 16:30J. Ruzicka56591215153E. Mares5811111013132
LJun 22 · 13:00J. Ruzicka214980E. Mares331111113
LJun 22 · 10:30J. Ruzicka41591891E. Mares49111116113
LJan 19 · 11:30J. Ruzicka5410111111112E. Mares56129913133
J. Ruzicka10
WOct 2 · 12:00J. Ruzicka2.3811811113E. Mares1.53411891WOct 2 · 11:30J. Simecek2.5079100J. Ruzicka1.501111123LOct 2 · 10:00J. Ruzicka2.2541212592A. Barton1.5711101011113WOct 2 · 09:30J. Ruzicka1.5591111113J. Simecek2.30116171WOct 2 · 08:00E. Mares1.5312111081J. Ruzicka2.38101312113WOct 2 · 07:00L. Jindrak1.336118121J. Ruzicka3.2511411143WOct 2 · 06:30J. Ruzicka1.5711911113J. Simecek2.25311761WSep 29 · 17:30J. Ruzicka2.0016911113O. Svacha1.731411731LSep 29 · 16:30J. Ruzicka1.91109111292F. Pusch1.801211410113WSep 29 · 15:00J. Ruzicka1.53911157113R. Urbaniec2.38117131192
E. Mares10
LOct 2 · 12:00J. Ruzicka2.3811811113E. Mares1.53411891WOct 2 · 11:00A. Barton3.503511111E. Mares1.2811119133WOct 2 · 10:30E. Mares1.251311133J. Simecek3.75112110LOct 2 · 09:00L. Jindrak1.501111113E. Mares2.504770LOct 2 · 08:00E. Mares1.5312111081J. Ruzicka2.38101312113LOct 2 · 07:30J. Simecek5.00812722113E. Mares1.141110112062LOct 2 · 06:00E. Mares2.20115591L. Jindrak1.6191111113LSep 30 · 13:30J. Vales1.831114113E. Mares1.8381290WSep 30 · 12:30M. Zahradka3.503880E. Mares1.281111113WSep 30 · 11:30E. Mares1.9171611113T. Postelt1.801114891
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