TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Cerveny Jr vs Pavel Cibik 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911811116115911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:45 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 70.4%
92 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 32–9 Pavel Cibik Pavel Cibik has won 9 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:4570.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cerveny Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-9 in 41
Cerveny Jr
Wrong
gap of 23 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerveny Jr 1526 vs Cibik 1553
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerveny Jr 20% vs Cibik 100%
Cibik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerveny Jr 50% vs Cibik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerveny Jr +1 · Cibik +5
Cibik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Cerveny Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerveny Jr 1.363 / Cibik 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Cerveny Jr)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232132
Cerveny Jr1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 68 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it83% 55 of 66
Cibik3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 66 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerveny Jr8wins
AwayCibik2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCerveny Jr leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerveny Jr83.3%5 of 6
AwayCibik25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerveny Jr6Cibik4n = 10Cerveny Jr took 6 of 10
S2Cerveny Jr6Cibik4n = 10Cerveny Jr took 6 of 10
S3Cerveny Jr7Cibik3n = 10Cerveny Jr took 7 of 10
S4Cerveny Jr6Cibik2n = 8Cerveny Jr took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCerveny JrCibikCerveny Jr − CibikBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.435.1+6.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCerveny JrCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime337 / 608 vs 323 / 69055.4%46.8%337 / 608 vs 323 / 690Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Cerveny JrCerveny Jr 1.36/Cibik 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Cerveny Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 22:00T. Cerveny Jr4291111113P. Cibik34117881
LSep 22 · 19:50T. Cerveny Jr3871011101P. Cibik4111126123
LSep 20 · 21:55T. Cerveny Jr351110771P. Cibik4281211113
WSep 20 · 18:50T. Cerveny Jr4281111123P. Cibik361196101
WSep 3 · 11:50T. Cerveny Jr48121411113P. Cibik421016881
WAug 30 · 19:20T. Cerveny Jr43111011113P. Cibik32712671
WMay 28 · 08:25T. Cerveny Jr341111123P. Cibik2688100
WMay 1 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr44111111113P. Cibik29281361
WApr 28 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr341111123P. Cibik2569100
WApr 21 · 16:50T. Cerveny Jr541013911113P. Cibik44121111372
T. Cerveny Jr10
WOct 2 · 18:20S. Matousch2.757780T. Cerveny Jr1.401111113LOct 1 · 17:20D. Zelezny1.6111811113T. Cerveny Jr2.20911661LOct 1 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr2.25871171V. Koutnik1.5711117113LOct 1 · 15:20T. Cerveny Jr2.2011104101D. Zelezny1.6181211123LOct 1 · 14:20T. Cerveny Jr1.3691011101T. Rein3.0011129123WSep 30 · 14:05T. Cerveny Jr1.401111123T. Rein2.7589100LSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.338540S. Matousch3.251111113WSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.4011211113T. Rein2.75811651WSep 30 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr2.7551111113F. Dvorak1.40117781WSep 28 · 10:23L. Rek1.33841471T. Cerveny Jr3.25111112113
P. Cibik10
WOct 2 · 20:20S. Matousch2.207830P. Cibik1.611111113WOct 2 · 18:50P. Cibik2.00811811123Z. Vyskocil1.73116118102WOct 1 · 22:25P. Cibik1.5711911113R. Zeman2.25811591WOct 1 · 21:25M. Dlask3.50511571P. Cibik1.2811611113WOct 1 · 20:25P. Cibik1.5011119113M. Nemec2.50991171WOct 1 · 18:55R. Zeman2.75711191P. Cibik1.4011114113LSep 30 · 21:29J. Mach1.571111113P. Cibik2.250890LSep 30 · 20:20P. Cibik2.5081111992J. Mach1.50119411113LSep 30 · 19:20P. Cibik1.5791241182S. Matousch2.251110112113WSep 30 · 18:20P. Cibik1.8011121211113L. Vich1.91131014752
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