TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Kyryl Darin vs Ondrej Kucirek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1188111210118––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:27 and never touched: 65.0% is still 65.0%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
65.0%
65.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Ondrej Kucirek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 79 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Kyryl Darin at 65.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 27–13 Ondrej Kucirek Ondrej Kucirek has won 13 of their 40 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kucirek beat Darin 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:2765.0%Our read68.0%to break even at 1.47
short by 3.0pp68.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.47 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Darin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-13 in 40
Darin
Correct
gap of 14 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1603 vs Kucirek 1522
Darin
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 80% vs Kucirek 60%
Darin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 70% vs Kucirek 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin +3 · Kucirek +2
Darin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Darin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kucirek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 1.47 / Kucirek 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Darin)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13231135
Darin1.47
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 161 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it93% 84 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it77% 111 of 144
Kucirek2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 46 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDarin8wins
AwayKucirek2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDarin leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDarin85.7%6 of 7
AwayKucirek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin7Kucirek3n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S2Darin6Kucirek4n = 10Darin took 6 of 10
S3Darin9Kucirek1n = 10Darin took 9 of 10
S4Darin2Kucirek3n = 5Kucirek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDarinKucirekD − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.930.8+9.1per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinKucirekBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 1580 vs 217 / 43349.4%50.1%781 / 1580 vs 217 / 433Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DarinDarin 1.47/Kucirek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65%
Darin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 22:00K. Darin366911101O. Kucirek4111117123
WSep 26 · 03:30K. Darin381116113O. Kucirek2431470
WSep 26 · 02:30K. Darin341112113O. Kucirek1921070
WAug 24 · 18:00K. Darin341111123O. Kucirek1725100
WAug 2 · 02:30K. Darin4111811113O. Kucirek30611671
LJul 23 · 23:30K. Darin441181691O. Kucirek4771118113
WJul 14 · 01:00K. Darin53911119133O. Kucirek44114711112
WJul 10 · 23:30K. Darin516101111133O. Kucirek44111255112
WJul 9 · 01:00K. Darin341211113O. Kucirek2310670
WJul 2 · 03:00K. Darin341211113O. Kucirek1910720
K. Darin10
WOct 2 · 02:00P. Picek2.2551161142K. Darin1.57115118113WOct 2 · 00:30K. Darin1.5371111113J. Steffan2.38117491WOct 1 · 23:00K. Darin1.67148117113M. Placek2.10121191142LOct 1 · 22:00O. Kucirek2.7511117123K. Darin1.406911101WOct 1 · 09:30J. Dedek1.85591111102K. Darin1.85111198123LOct 1 · 08:00K. Darin1.6198131162J. Jnr2.201111115113WOct 1 · 07:30J. Steffan2.38134611112K. Darin1.531111117133WOct 1 · 06:00K. Darin1.831112106113J. Dedek1.83710121122LSep 30 · 03:30K. Darin2.25851181R. Pavelka1.5811113113WSep 30 · 02:00V. Postelt1.141411991K. Darin5.0016511113
O. Kucirek10
WOct 2 · 02:30M. Placek1.57711641O. Kucirek2.2511311113WOct 2 · 01:00P. Picek3.507790O. Kucirek1.281111113LOct 1 · 23:30O. Kucirek1.836470J. Steffan1.831111113WOct 1 · 22:00O. Kucirek2.7511117123K. Darin1.406911101LSep 26 · 03:30K. Darin1.441116113O. Kucirek2.6331470LSep 26 · 02:30K. Darin1.501112113O. Kucirek2.5021070WSep 26 · 01:00P. Picek3.40811100O. Kucirek1.301113123WSep 25 · 23:30O. Kucirek2.00114911123T. Andrle1.73811118102WSep 25 · 22:00O. Kucirek2.101511113R. Bartunek1.6713970WSep 24 · 03:28O. Kucirek1.671111113J. Jnr2.108790
Upcoming Matches
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