TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Kateryna Bondarenko vs Ksenia Tymchenko 3-1 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210411115116––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:54 and never touched: 81.8% is still 81.8%
Graded at full timeKateryna Bondarenko to win
81.8%
81.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKateryna Bondarenko above · Ksenia Tymchenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Kateryna Bondarenko at 81.8%
70 points played in total.
H2H Kateryna Bondarenko 10–0 Ksenia Tymchenko Ksenia Tymchenko has won 0 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5481.8%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 1.5pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-0 in 10
Bondarenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1644 vs Tymchenko 1428
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 216 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 20% vs Tymchenko 60%
Tymchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 60% vs Tymchenko 30%
Bondarenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko -3 · Tymchenko +2
Bondarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% · Strong (leans Bondarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.20 / Tymchenko 4.333
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Bondarenko)-1.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13230097
Bondarenko1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 81 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 52 of 63
Tymchenko4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 34 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back6% 4 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarenko10wins
AwayTymchenko0wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBondarenko leads 10–0, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko100%6 of 6
AwayTymchenko0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko6Tymchenko4n = 10Bondarenko took 6 of 10
S2Bondarenko7Tymchenko3n = 10Bondarenko took 7 of 10
S3Bondarenko7Tymchenko3n = 10Bondarenko took 7 of 10
S4Bondarenko6Tymchenko2n = 8Bondarenko took 6 of 8
S5Bondarenko3Tymchenko0n = 3Bondarenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarenkoTymchenkoB − TBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.634.0+8.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoTymchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 137 vs 132 / 38267.9%34.6%93 / 137 vs 132 / 382Avg sets wonper match2.51.6per matchAvg pointsper match41.035.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.20/Tymchenko 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.8%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 26 · 12:35K. Bondarenko331111113K. Tymchenko225890
WAug 16 · 15:05K. Bondarenko4111118113K. Tymchenko28361181
WAug 2 · 17:05K. Bondarenko50671511113K. Tymchenko44111113632
WJul 31 · 12:35K. Bondarenko44651111113K. Tymchenko4211119472
WJul 18 · 13:05K. Bondarenko391117113K. Tymchenko2371510
WJun 6 · 18:35K. Bondarenko44111111113K. Tymchenko32137841
WJun 5 · 19:05K. Bondarenko3961111113K. Tymchenko31118391
WMay 24 · 17:35K. Bondarenko491141112113K. Tymchenko4791191442
WMar 27 · 13:35K. Bondarenko4414118113K. Tymchenko371261181
K. Bondarenko10
LOct 2 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.50711911112A. Gorchakova2.50118118133LSep 26 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.30116871A. Lapa3.4051111113LSep 26 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.8011911982M. Gordeets1.91311911113WSep 26 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113O. Ivchenko3.009490LSep 26 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.509830V. Shevchuk2.50111163WSep 26 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.221111113K. Tymchenko4.005890WSep 19 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113A. Lapa3.008820WSep 19 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.5011118113A. Volgina2.50571141WSep 19 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.4081111113O. Ivchenko2.75119461WSep 19 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.28611812113O. Bondareva3.50115111072
K. Tymchenko10
WOct 2 · 13:05Y. Severina2.0061150K. Tymchenko1.731113113WSep 27 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.2511119133O. Ivchenko1.333611111LSep 27 · 17:05A. Gorchakova1.251111113K. Tymchenko3.758790WSep 27 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.501411113M. Gordeets1.5012780LSep 27 · 15:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.2571111113K. Tymchenko1.57117561LSep 27 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.756980V. Shevchuk1.401111113LSep 26 · 19:05M. Gordeets1.501111113K. Tymchenko2.506680LSep 26 · 18:05V. Shevchuk1.40111110113K. Tymchenko2.75961281LSep 26 · 16:35A. Lapa1.401112113K. Tymchenko2.7581080LSep 26 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.221111113K. Tymchenko4.005890
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