TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Ponomarenko vs Dmytro Kunchurov 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:25 and never touched: 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Dmytro Kunchurov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 66.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 61–29 Dmytro Kunchurov Dmytro Kunchurov has won 29 of their 90 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2566.0%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 0.7pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
61-29 in 90
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 32 in 90, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1063 vs Kunchurov 945
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Kunchurov 20%
Ponomarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Kunchurov 50%
Ponomarenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +1 · Kunchurov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kunchurov form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.50 / Kunchurov 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-0.7pp
Setka Cup · #13229764
Ponomarenko1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 74 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it98% 41 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it88% 56 of 64
Kunchurov2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 34 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back13% 9 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko8wins
AwayKunchurov2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko87.5%7 of 8
AwayKunchurovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko8Kunchurov2n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S2Ponomarenko7Kunchurov3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S3Ponomarenko6Kunchurov4n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S4Ponomarenko3Kunchurov2n = 5Ponomarenko took 3 of 5
S5Ponomarenko2Kunchurov1n = 3Ponomarenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKunchurovP − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.230.5+7.7per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKunchurovBasisWin rate · lifetime307 / 657 vs 87 / 22246.7%39.2%307 / 657 vs 87 / 222Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.435.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.50/Kunchurov 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kunchurov208480
LSep 25 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko4211116592D. Kunchurov43461111113
WSep 12 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko43101111113D. Kunchurov33126871
WAug 23 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko44115116113D. Kunchurov4381191142
WAug 22 · 11:50O. Ponomarenko511181011113D. Kunchurov4551112982
WAug 18 · 11:10O. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kunchurov163580
WAug 15 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko4111118113D. Kunchurov36981181
WJul 22 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko371115113D. Kunchurov2881370
WJul 19 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kunchurov81430
LJun 15 · 05:00O. Ponomarenko258980D. Kunchurov331111113
O. Ponomarenko10
WOct 2 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko1.301112113O. Efimov3.4071090LSep 26 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko3.7589111482O. Stopin1.251111912113WSep 26 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko1.301191111163M. Mykhailenko3.40911135142WSep 26 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko1.441111113D. Kunchurov2.638480WSep 26 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.401111113K. Tsoi2.759560WSep 26 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko1.361111143K. Vernudin3.0089120WSep 25 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.3311911113K. Vernudin3.25511851WSep 25 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko1.3313126113M. Mykhailenko3.2511101191WSep 25 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.83751111113V. Mykhalchenko1.8311116892LSep 25 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.1799120O. Efimov4.501111143
D. Kunchurov10
LOct 2 · 12:30K. Vernudin1.8011119113D. Kunchurov1.91981151WSep 26 · 11:30D. Kunchurov1.5711711113K. Tsoi2.25711661LSep 26 · 09:30O. Stopin1.17119135113D. Kunchurov4.50711111162LSep 26 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko1.441111113D. Kunchurov2.638480LSep 26 · 06:30D. Kunchurov1.8369111172K. Vernudin1.83111188113WSep 26 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2.253515101D. Kunchurov1.57111113123WSep 25 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko1.917880D. Kunchurov1.801111113WSep 25 · 17:30O. Efimov3.40121020D. Kunchurov1.301412103WSep 25 · 16:00K. Vernudin1.673970D. Kunchurov2.101111103LSep 25 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko1.251191111153D. Kunchurov3.75131168132
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