TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Dzida vs Adam Kanak 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012811––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:28 and never touched: 61.4% is still 61.4%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
61.4%
61.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Adam Kanak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 61 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Lukas Dzida at 61.4%
61 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 4–1 Adam Kanak Adam Kanak has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Dzida beat Kanak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2861.4%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
clears by 3.5pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dzida
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Dzida
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1569 vs Kanak 1541
Dzida
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 60% vs Kanak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 30% vs Kanak 50%
Kanak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida +2 · Kanak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Dzida) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.727 / Kanak 2.00
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Dzida)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13229193
Dzida1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 53 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it67% 33 of 49
Kanak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog60% won 32 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back39% 10 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDzida4wins
AwayKanak1wins
4 of 5 to a deciderDzida leads 4–1, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzidan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKanak33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida2Kanak3n = 5Kanak took 3 of 5
S2Dzida5Kanak0n = 5Dzida took 5 of 5
S3Dzida1Kanak4n = 5Kanak took 4 of 5
S4Dzida3Kanak1n = 4Dzida took 3 of 4
S5Dzida3Kanak1n = 4Dzida took 3 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricDzidaKanakD − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match45.640.6+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaKanakBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 236 vs 83 / 15354.2%54.3%128 / 236 vs 83 / 153Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 1.73/Kanak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.4%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kanak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 1 · 14:45L. Dzida371115113A. Kanak2361340
WSep 28 · 11:10L. Dzida50111198113A. Kanak4389111142
WAug 25 · 16:50L. Dzida47611811113A. Kanak4311811852
LAug 25 · 14:40L. Dzida47911411122A. Kanak50115119143
WJul 13 · 12:10L. Dzida47511911113A. Kanak4411411992
L. Dzida10
WOct 1 · 16:15L. Dzida1.839111110113V. Konvicka1.8311781272WOct 1 · 14:45A. Kanak2.0061340L. Dzida1.731115113LOct 1 · 14:15M. Moravec1.6761111113L. Dzida2.10119991WOct 1 · 12:34T. Kindl1.531141061L. Dzida2.3871112113LOct 1 · 12:10L. Dzida1.834890T. Kindl1.831111113LOct 1 · 10:40D. Velky Jr1.911511133L. Dzida1.80138110LOct 1 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.831111115113L. Dzida1.8385131162LSep 30 · 12:38T. Kindl1.9161112113L. Dzida1.801181061LSep 30 · 12:10T. Kindl2.001112133L. Dzida1.73610110LSep 30 · 11:10L. Dzida2.008650R. Benes1.731111113
A. Kanak10
WOct 1 · 15:45A. Kanak2.001111911113M. Moravec1.7313711792LOct 1 · 14:45A. Kanak2.0061340L. Dzida1.731115113WOct 1 · 13:45A. Kanak1.53101113113V. Konvicka2.381271191LSep 28 · 17:10A. Kanak2.0061260R. Benes1.731114113WSep 28 · 16:10A. Kanak1.671112173D. Pawlik2.10810150WSep 28 · 14:40K. Kleprlik1.44811381A. Kanak2.6311111113LSep 28 · 14:10R. Benes1.737111111113A. Kanak2.0011171362LSep 28 · 13:10A. Kanak1.80117581R. Benes1.9171111113WSep 28 · 12:10R. Benes1.91791171A. Kanak1.8011115113LSep 28 · 11:10A. Kanak2.0089111142L. Dzida1.73111198113
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