TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Matus vs Oldrich Vaclahovsky 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111178111131210
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:13 and never touched: 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeOldrich Vaclahovsky to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Oldrich Vaclahovsky below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 88 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Oldrich Vaclahovsky at 58.2%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 5–9 Oldrich Vaclahovsky Jiri Matus has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1358.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1409 vs Vaclahovsky 1442
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Vaclahovsky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 60% vs Vaclahovsky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus +1 · Vaclahovsky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Vaclahovsky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 2.10 / Vaclahovsky 1.666
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vaclahovsky)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13224351
Matus2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog48% won 27 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back31% 8 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Vaclahovsky1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 31 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus4wins
AwayVaclahovsky6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVaclahovsky leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus66.7%2 of 3
AwayVaclahovsky71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus3Vaclahovsky7n = 10Vaclahovsky took 7 of 10
S2Matus4Vaclahovsky6n = 10Vaclahovsky took 6 of 10
S3Matus7Vaclahovsky3n = 10Matus took 7 of 10
S4Matus4Vaclahovsky5n = 9Vaclahovsky took 5 of 9
S5Matus2Vaclahovsky3n = 5Vaclahovsky took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusVaclahovskyM − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.341.5−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusVaclahovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 449 vs 130 / 27152.1%48%234 / 449 vs 130 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VaclahovskyMatus 2.10/Vaclahovsky 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.2%
Vaclahovsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 06:15J. Matus46411811123O. Vaclahovsky42117113102
LAug 31 · 13:40J. Matus4191111372O. Vaclahovsky45118411113
LJul 24 · 10:10J. Matus195770O. Vaclahovsky331111113
LJul 22 · 12:44J. Matus3735111172O. Vaclahovsky48111178113
WJul 22 · 11:15J. Matus3911611113O. Vaclahovsky30911641
LJun 7 · 07:10J. Matus34912491O. Vaclahovsky43111011113
LJun 4 · 09:15J. Matus4412912562O. Vaclahovsky5310111011113
WJun 4 · 07:45J. Matus4071111113O. Vaclahovsky30116761
LMar 29 · 21:15J. Matus341421171O. Vaclahovsky4516117113
WMar 29 · 18:10J. Matus49137117113O. Vaclahovsky46111191142
J. Matus10
LOct 1 · 07:45P. Chlad1.6741212123J. Matus2.10111010101WOct 1 · 07:15D. Stefek1.9151111742J. Matus1.80117711113WSep 29 · 08:45J. Matus1.5711116113M. Sobota2.25381141LSep 29 · 07:45J. Matus1.678116121D. Stefek2.1011811143LSep 29 · 06:45J. Matus1.5713812682M. Sobota2.2511111011113WSep 29 · 05:45J. Matus1.83111189113R. Zajac1.8386111122WSep 22 · 09:15J. Matus1.731111143A. Strelec2.0097120WSep 22 · 08:10J. Matus1.3311911113L. Snr3.25411481LSep 22 · 06:40A. Strelec1.83119811113J. Matus1.8391111982WSep 22 · 06:10J. Sevecek1.801011371J. Matus1.9112611113
O. Vaclahovsky10
WOct 1 · 06:45P. Chlad1.8091171182O. Vaclahovsky1.91119118113LSep 29 · 13:14A. Drozd1.7311116113O. Vaclahovsky2.00831161WSep 29 · 12:15J. Sindler1.67791141O. Vaclahovsky2.1011119113WSep 29 · 11:15O. Vaclahovsky1.7391111113M. Kliment2.00113911LSep 29 · 09:45A. Drozd1.806111011113O. Vaclahovsky1.9111512682WSep 26 · 13:20P. Chvojka1.83119541O. Vaclahovsky1.8741111113WSep 26 · 11:40O. Vaclahovsky1.731091111113A. Strelec2.0012117872LSep 26 · 10:40O. Vaclahovsky1.801011971P. Chvojka1.9112911113WSep 26 · 09:40O. Vaclahovsky2.0013115113J. Jnr1.731191161WSep 25 · 21:10O. Vaclahovsky1.8311117113J. Przybyla1.83861181
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