TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vaclav Hruska Sr vs Vaclav Dolezal 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1155111214119811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeVaclav Dolezal to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Hruska Sr above · Vaclav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Vaclav Dolezal at 58.1%
97 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hruska Sr 15–26 Vaclav Dolezal Vaclav Hruska Sr has won 15 of their 41 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2858.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dolezal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-26 in 41
Dolezal
Correct
gap of 11 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hruska Sr 1325 vs Dolezal 1389
Dolezal
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hruska Sr 20% vs Dolezal 80%
Dolezal
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hruska Sr 40% vs Dolezal 60%
Dolezal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hruska Sr -1 · Dolezal +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Dolezal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHruska Sr 2.20 / Dolezal 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Dolezal)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13224127
Hruska Sr2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 78 of 201
Down 0–1, comes back23% 26 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 67
Dolezal1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 134 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it96% 64 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it84% 101 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHruska Sr5wins
AwayDolezal5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHruska Sr25%1 of 4
AwayDolezal33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hruska Sr4Dolezal6n = 10Dolezal took 6 of 10
S2Hruska Sr4Dolezal6n = 10Dolezal took 6 of 10
S3Hruska Sr5Dolezal5n = 10split evenly
S4Hruska Sr7Dolezal1n = 8Hruska Sr took 7 of 8
S5Hruska Sr1Dolezal3n = 4Dolezal took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHruska SrDolezalH − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.940.7−2.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHruska SrDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime468 / 1000 vs 391 / 77846.8%50.3%468 / 1000 vs 391 / 778Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalHruska Sr 2.20/Dolezal 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 29 · 12:58V. Hruska Sr47101112143V. Dolezal4312910121
WMay 29 · 10:00V. Hruska Sr3521111113V. Dolezal34119681
LMay 29 · 09:00V. Hruska Sr4411771182V. Dolezal48811117113
LMay 29 · 06:30V. Hruska Sr4811891192V. Dolezal46911114113
LMay 12 · 10:00V. Hruska Sr177460V. Dolezal331111113
LMar 26 · 11:30V. Hruska Sr4311741382V. Dolezal517111111113
WMar 14 · 08:30V. Hruska Sr43101111113V. Dolezal39129991
WJan 14 · 21:30V. Hruska Sr49126119113V. Dolezal44101151172
LOct 29 · 12:30V. Hruska Sr1821060V. Dolezal341112113
WSep 17 · 06:00V. Hruska Sr3521111113V. Dolezal35118881
V. Hruska Sr10
LSep 30 · 19:00V. Hruska Sr2.501314911102J. Framberk1.501512115123WSep 30 · 18:00J. Pelikan2.631111491V. Hruska Sr1.4471311113LSep 29 · 03:00V. Hruska Sr2.25111188102J. Briska1.57961111123LSep 29 · 02:00M. Ulrych1.331112113V. Hruska Sr3.2551050LSep 29 · 00:30V. Hruska Sr2.10571111122J. Strnad1.67111187143WSep 28 · 23:00V. Hruska Sr2.1011118113J. Briska1.67761191WSep 28 · 22:00T. Regner1.36361141V. Hruska Sr3.0011118113LSep 27 · 08:59V. Hruska Sr1.736970P. Berdych2.001111113WSep 27 · 08:30V. Hruska Sr1.911311113P. Berdych1.8011190LSep 27 · 07:00V. Hruska Sr2.38813971L. Sulava1.53111111113
V. Dolezal10
WSep 30 · 19:30V. Dolezal1.831111113J. Pelikan1.839620WSep 30 · 18:28J. Framberk3.251251151V. Dolezal1.33101113113LSep 28 · 09:28J. Strnad1.50118914113V. Dolezal2.50711111282WSep 28 · 08:00V. Dolezal1.44811118113L. Sulava2.6311851182WSep 28 · 07:30J. Briska1.83311851V. Dolezal1.8311211113LSep 28 · 06:00V. Dolezal2.38531141J. Strnad1.5311116113WSep 27 · 02:59M. Stefek2.75711121182V. Dolezal1.40119146113LSep 27 · 02:00D. Barton1.6111711113V. Dolezal2.20911751WSep 27 · 00:30V. Dolezal1.531011811113M. Stefek2.3812811842LSep 26 · 23:00V. Dolezal2.107370J. Didi1.671111113
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