TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Filip Kubos vs Zdenek Kuksa 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119116611711811
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched: 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeZdenek Kuksa to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Kubos above · Zdenek Kuksa below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Zdenek Kuksa at 62.8%
91 points played in total.
H2H Filip Kubos 7–13 Zdenek Kuksa Filip Kubos has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2862.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kuksa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-13 in 20
Kuksa
Correct
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubos 1500 vs Kuksa 1572
Kuksa
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubos 20% vs Kuksa 60%
Kuksa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubos 30% vs Kuksa 70%
Kuksa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubos -1 · Kuksa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kuksa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubos form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubos 2.375 / Kuksa 1.533
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kuksa)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223972
Kubos2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 72 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 56
Kuksa1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 78 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubos5wins
AwayKuksa5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubos100%3 of 3
AwayKuksa71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubos3Kuksa7n = 10Kuksa took 7 of 10
S2Kubos7Kuksa3n = 10Kubos took 7 of 10
S3Kubos3Kuksa7n = 10Kuksa took 7 of 10
S4Kubos6Kuksa1n = 7Kubos took 6 of 7
S5Kubos2Kuksa3n = 5Kuksa took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubosKuksaKubos − KuksaBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.342.2+0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubosKuksaBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 707 vs 260 / 50750.2%51.3%355 / 707 vs 260 / 507Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KuksaKubos 2.38/Kuksa 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Kuksa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kuksa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 08:53F. Kubos53111295163Z. Kuksa548101111142
LAug 21 · 07:45F. Kubos508111011102Z. Kuksa52118129123
LAug 7 · 11:45F. Kubos48611111192Z. Kuksa51111397113
WAug 6 · 17:09F. Kubos371511113Z. Kuksa2513390
WAug 6 · 13:30F. Kubos43111110113Z. Kuksa29951231
LJul 3 · 06:00F. Kubos4381161262Z. Kuksa511181110113
WJun 26 · 05:30F. Kubos52615911113Z. Kuksa51111311792
LJun 6 · 08:19F. Kubos2761290Z. Kuksa361114113
WJun 6 · 05:45F. Kubos4391211113Z. Kuksa371110971
LMay 2 · 05:45F. Kubos2791260Z. Kuksa361114113
F. Kubos10
LOct 1 · 14:30F. Kubos2.25116261V. Herrmann1.5781111113LSep 28 · 20:43F. Kubos1.57116111172T. Bertho2.25411134113WSep 28 · 19:45T. Bertho2.107890F. Kubos1.671111113LSep 28 · 18:45S. Kalensky1.919111111113F. Kubos1.8011813882LSep 28 · 17:15J. Snr1.91511511123F. Kubos1.80115116102LSep 27 · 21:04R. Merkl1.5711119113F. Kubos2.25651151WSep 27 · 19:30F. Kubos2.2512611123A. Pavlik1.5710118101LSep 27 · 18:30F. Kubos2.75741171L. Kolman1.4011115113WSep 27 · 17:30F. Kubos3.25711116113R. Merkl1.3311681182LSep 21 · 20:23F. Kubos1.80111180S. Kalensky1.911313113
Z. Kuksa10
WSep 28 · 08:18Z. Kuksa2.20581111113P. Orlowski1.6111115582LSep 28 · 07:15P. Orlowski1.916111011113Z. Kuksa1.8011912892WSep 28 · 06:45Z. Kuksa1.61111168113R. Merkl2.2095111142WSep 28 · 05:45Z. Kuksa1.6111811113T. Kanka2.20611761LSep 26 · 08:44Z. Kuksa1.50611111152T. Kanka2.50115135113WSep 26 · 07:45Z. Kuksa1.731111113R. Merkl2.008890WSep 26 · 06:15T. Kanka2.38711513102Z. Kuksa1.531171111123WSep 26 · 05:45M. Taranko1.67571181Z. Kuksa2.1011119113LSep 25 · 12:38L. Smazik2.201211143Z. Kuksa1.61106120WSep 25 · 11:30Z. Kuksa1.911111113L. Smazik1.808680
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