TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Cizek vs Pavel Moulis 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:28 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timePavel Cizek to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Cizek above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 57 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Pavel Cizek at 57.7%
57 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cizek 3–2 Pavel Moulis Pavel Moulis has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2857.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cizek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1283 vs Moulis 1319
Moulis
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 20% vs Moulis 40%
Moulis
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 30% vs Moulis 60%
Moulis
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -3 · Moulis +2
Cizek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Cizek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.615 / Moulis 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Cizek)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223767
Cizek1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 13 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Moulis2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 24 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeCizek3wins
AwayMoulis2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderCizek leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMoulis66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek2Moulis3n = 5Moulis took 3 of 5
S2Cizek3Moulis2n = 5Cizek took 3 of 5
S3Cizek3Moulis2n = 5Cizek took 3 of 5
S4Cizek3Moulis0n = 3Cizek took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricCizekMoulisC − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.435.0+2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 78 vs 192 / 43941%43.7%32 / 78 vs 192 / 439Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.61/Moulis 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 1 · 06:30P. Cizek248970P. Moulis331111113
LSep 2 · 12:39P. Cizek5081471472P. Moulis5711121112113
WSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek4291111113P. Moulis29112791
WAug 13 · 08:34P. Cizek3812411113P. Moulis321011651
WAug 13 · 07:30P. Cizek331111113P. Moulis249780
P. Cizek10
LOct 1 · 07:30P. Cizek2.38161171172L. Krutina1.531441113113LOct 1 · 05:30P. Cizek1.44117871M. Obraz2.6361111113LSep 30 · 08:38A. Dvoracek1.5711116133P. Cizek2.255711111LSep 30 · 07:30P. Cizek2.257711101A. Dvoracek1.5711114123WSep 30 · 06:30P. Cizek1.611111113M. Obraz2.206890LSep 30 · 05:30P. Cizek1.8351111692D. Sabuka1.83115611113WSep 16 · 08:34P. Cizek1.831112113M. Obraz1.8341080WSep 16 · 07:30M. Obraz1.6711116662P. Cizek2.10971111113LSep 16 · 07:00P. Cizek2.3891112862M. Cmil1.531171011113LSep 16 · 06:00P. Cizek2.108670L. Krutina1.671111113
P. Moulis10
WOct 1 · 06:00L. Krutina1.617612101P. Moulis2.20111110123WSep 24 · 08:34P. Moulis2.5031211113V. Kral1.501110471LSep 24 · 08:00J. Puk1.6111811113P. Moulis2.20911861LSep 24 · 07:00V. Kral1.7311116113P. Moulis2.00671191LSep 24 · 05:30M. Snizek1.5011511113P. Moulis2.50211161WSep 23 · 09:09P. Moulis2.63111110113L. Krutina1.44841231WSep 23 · 08:00M. Holub2.20881111102P. Moulis1.61111188123WSep 23 · 07:00F. Fryml2.00511611152P. Moulis1.73116119173LSep 23 · 05:30L. Krutina1.44121138113P. Moulis2.63109111192WSep 22 · 13:05P. Moulis2.101111113J. Jnr1.675820
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