TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Cizek vs Lukas Krutina 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
16141147111113711
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:28 and never touched: 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeLukas Krutina to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cizek above · Lukas Krutina below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 105 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Lukas Krutina at 60.8%
105 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cizek 0–3 Lukas Krutina Pavel Cizek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2860.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Krutina
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Krutina
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1283 vs Krutina 1378
Krutina
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 20% vs Krutina 40%
Krutina
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 30% vs Krutina 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -4 · Krutina +1
Cizek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Krutina) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krutina form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.375 / Krutina 1.533
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Krutina)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223741
Cizek2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 10 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Krutina1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 43 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it78% 31 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeCizek0wins
AwayKrutina3wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKrutina leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek1Krutina2n = 3Krutina took 2 of 3
S2Cizek1Krutina2n = 3Krutina took 2 of 3
S3Cizek1Krutina2n = 3Krutina took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricCizekKrutinaC − KBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.044.0−5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekKrutinaBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 78 vs 127 / 24441%52.1%32 / 78 vs 127 / 244Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrutinaCizek 2.38/Krutina 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Krutina · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krutina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 1 · 07:30P. Cizek52161171172L. Krutina531441113113
LSep 16 · 06:00P. Cizek218670L. Krutina331111113
LJun 4 · 06:15P. Cizek4469111172L. Krutina46111158113
P. Cizek10
LOct 1 · 06:30P. Cizek1.618970P. Moulis2.201111113LOct 1 · 05:30P. Cizek1.44117871M. Obraz2.6361111113LSep 30 · 08:38A. Dvoracek1.5711116133P. Cizek2.255711111LSep 30 · 07:30P. Cizek2.257711101A. Dvoracek1.5711114123WSep 30 · 06:30P. Cizek1.611111113M. Obraz2.206890LSep 30 · 05:30P. Cizek1.8351111692D. Sabuka1.83115611113WSep 16 · 08:34P. Cizek1.831112113M. Obraz1.8341080WSep 16 · 07:30M. Obraz1.6711116662P. Cizek2.10971111113LSep 16 · 07:00P. Cizek2.3891112862M. Cmil1.531171011113LSep 16 · 06:00P. Cizek2.108670L. Krutina1.671111113
L. Krutina10
WOct 1 · 07:00L. Krutina1.8031113113M. Obraz1.911191191LOct 1 · 06:00L. Krutina1.617612101P. Moulis2.20111110123LSep 28 · 21:08M. Holub2.00111110113L. Krutina1.73761251LSep 28 · 19:30L. Krutina2.104811111T. Stejskal1.6711117133WSep 28 · 18:30L. Krutina1.83121166113M. Cmil1.83103111172WSep 28 · 17:30L. Krutina1.73111287173M. Holub2.008101111152WSep 25 · 08:33L. Krutina1.67713911113M. Holub2.10111111682LSep 25 · 08:00L. Krutina2.756117101D. Sabuka1.4011411123LSep 25 · 06:30M. Holub2.1011611113L. Krutina1.67711781WSep 16 · 06:00P. Cizek2.108670L. Krutina1.671111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.