TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Borek Moravec vs Jan Pribyl 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11461112108111210
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:36 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Jan Pribyl below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 95 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Borek Moravec at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 14–16 Jan Pribyl Borek Moravec has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pribyl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-16 in 30
Pribyl
Wrong
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1744 vs Pribyl 1660
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 80% vs Pribyl 60%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 60% vs Pribyl 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +3 · Pribyl +2
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.833 / Pribyl 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moravec)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13221696
Moravec1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Pribyl1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec4wins
AwayPribyl6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPribyl leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec80%4 of 5
AwayPribyl100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec5Pribyl5n = 10split evenly
S2Moravec3Pribyl7n = 10Pribyl took 7 of 10
S3Moravec5Pribyl5n = 10split evenly
S4Moravec6Pribyl1n = 7Moravec took 6 of 7
S5Moravec0Pribyl3n = 3Pribyl took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecPribylM − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.436.7+0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecPribylBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 468 vs 118 / 21657.9%54.6%271 / 468 vs 118 / 216Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.83/Pribyl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 15:40B. Moravec3911611113J. Pribyl34711971
LSep 22 · 14:45B. Moravec4691191162J. Pribyl46116117113
WSep 11 · 15:45B. Moravec4111118113J. Pribyl31861161
LSep 10 · 14:45B. Moravec51119911112J. Pribyl45611114133
LJun 27 · 09:15B. Moravec31861161J. Pribyl3611113113
WJun 27 · 07:45B. Moravec4211911113J. Pribyl33911761
LJun 1 · 17:15B. Moravec2367100J. Pribyl341111123
LJun 1 · 16:10B. Moravec4077111142J. Pribyl46111149113
LMay 28 · 16:10B. Moravec2710980J. Pribyl341211113
WMay 13 · 17:15B. Moravec341211113J. Pribyl2810990
B. Moravec10
WSep 30 · 13:45B. Moravec1.8391111123D. Stusek1.831147101WSep 24 · 17:10D. Stusek1.736117121B. Moravec2.0011211143WSep 24 · 15:40B. Moravec1.8311611113J. Pribyl1.83711971LSep 24 · 14:40B. Moravec1.50541161D. Stusek2.5011119113WSep 24 · 13:40B. Moravec1.531111113K. Kleprlik2.388550WSep 22 · 16:55F. Chaloupka2.20118491B. Moravec1.6191111113LSep 22 · 15:45B. Moravec1.4461111111D. Skulina2.6311613133LSep 22 · 14:45B. Moravec1.8091191162J. Pribyl1.91116117113LSep 22 · 13:45B. Moravec1.537780F. Chaloupka2.381111113WSep 16 · 17:14B. Moravec1.53111178133D. Skulina2.38791111112
J. Pribyl10
WSep 30 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.837980J. Pribyl1.831111113WSep 24 · 16:40K. Kleprlik1.8398121582J. Pribyl1.8311111013113LSep 24 · 15:40B. Moravec1.8311611113J. Pribyl1.83711971LSep 24 · 15:10K. Kleprlik2.20111112113J. Pribyl1.615131061WSep 24 · 14:10J. Pribyl1.44118118123D. Stusek2.63811811102LSep 22 · 17:25D. Skulina1.671113123J. Pribyl2.10811100WSep 22 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.61111176113F. Chaloupka2.2068111192WSep 22 · 14:45B. Moravec1.8091191162J. Pribyl1.91116117113LSep 22 · 14:15D. Skulina2.10111011113J. Pribyl1.67912181WSep 12 · 12:39A. Kanak1.806450J. Pribyl1.911111113
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