TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Kyryl Darin vs Radim Pavelka 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811511113811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:16 and never touched: 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 68 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Radim Pavelka at 60.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 3–8 Radim Pavelka Kyryl Darin has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Darin beat Pavelka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:16What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (59%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Pavelka
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1601 vs Pavelka 1609
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 100% vs Pavelka 60%
Darin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 90% vs Pavelka 60%
Darin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin +9 · Pavelka +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Pavelka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Darin form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 2.25 / Pavelka 1.58
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Pavelka)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13220214
Darin2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 170 of 423
Down 0–1, comes back19% 46 of 238
Down 0–2, comes back5% 8 of 148
Pavelka1.58
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 96 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it78% 67 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDarin3wins
AwayPavelka7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDarin60%3 of 5
AwayPavelka100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin5Pavelka5n = 10split evenly
S2Darin3Pavelka7n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S3Darin5Pavelka5n = 10split evenly
S4Darin4Pavelka6n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDarinPavelkaD − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.140.0−2.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime775 / 1572 vs 446 / 87649.3%50.9%775 / 1572 vs 446 / 876Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaDarin 2.25/Pavelka 1.58
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.3%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 23:00K. Darin4413911113R. Pavelka341111481
LAug 27 · 16:30K. Darin4013611101R. Pavelka4015112123
LJun 24 · 21:30K. Darin33811771R. Pavelka4011711113
WJun 24 · 20:30K. Darin3711411113R. Pavelka32711861
WJun 15 · 16:00K. Darin4517611113R. Pavelka421511881
LJun 7 · 09:00K. Darin24511531R. Pavelka4011711113
LJun 7 · 06:30K. Darin30117661R. Pavelka4291111113
LApr 18 · 08:00K. Darin4276111172R. Pavelka42111127113
LJun 1 · 21:30K. Darin409116141R. Pavelka4511711163
LJun 1 · 19:30K. Darin36129691R. Pavelka43101111113
K. Darin10
WSep 30 · 02:00V. Postelt1.141411991K. Darin5.0016511113WSep 30 · 00:30K. Darin2.20911119113J. Plachy1.6111941122WSep 29 · 23:00K. Darin3.0013911113R. Pavelka1.361111481WSep 29 · 22:00J. Prokupek1.6171260K. Darin2.201114113WSep 26 · 03:30K. Darin1.441116113O. Kucirek2.6331470WSep 26 · 02:30K. Darin1.501112113O. Kucirek2.5021070WSep 26 · 01:30T. Andrle2.0011911542K. Darin1.73911711113WSep 26 · 00:00K. Darin1.671111113P. Picek2.107650WSep 25 · 23:00R. Bartunek2.755540K. Darin1.401111113LSep 25 · 13:30K. Darin1.6361211992J. Steffan2.151110511113
R. Pavelka10
WSep 30 · 02:30R. Pavelka1.6711117113J. Prokupek2.10771171WSep 30 · 01:30J. Plachy2.2511138732R. Pavelka1.577111111113WSep 30 · 00:00R. Pavelka2.101011118113V. Postelt1.6712291112LSep 29 · 23:00K. Darin3.0013911113R. Pavelka1.361111481LSep 28 · 21:30T. Janata1.731111113R. Pavelka2.004390WSep 28 · 20:30R. Pavelka1.91101111113J. Trefny1.80127981WSep 28 · 19:00R. Pavelka2.251113113T. Janata1.5781150LSep 28 · 18:00J. Stolfa1.611111113R. Pavelka2.209770WSep 27 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.859111112112R. Pavelka1.85117614133LSep 27 · 20:30R. Pavelka2.5012880L. Krticka1.501411113
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