TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Sideltsev vs Ihor Dubinin 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81111910121012––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:25 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeIhor Dubinin to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Sideltsev above · Ihor Dubinin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 83 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Ihor Dubinin at 59.3%
83 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Sideltsev 6–18 Ihor Dubinin Sergii Sideltsev has won 6 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2559.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dubinin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-18 in 24
Dubinin
Correct
gap of 12 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sideltsev 1488 vs Dubinin 1454
Sideltsev
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sideltsev 80% vs Dubinin 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sideltsev 60% vs Dubinin 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sideltsev +2 · Dubinin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Dubinin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dubinin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSideltsev 2.20 / Dubinin 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Dubinin)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219079
Sideltsev2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Dubinin1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite69% won 52 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSideltsev5wins
AwayDubinin5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSideltsev75%3 of 4
AwayDubinin66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sideltsev4Dubinin6n = 10Dubinin took 6 of 10
S2Sideltsev5Dubinin5n = 10split evenly
S3Sideltsev6Dubinin4n = 10Sideltsev took 6 of 10
S4Sideltsev5Dubinin2n = 7Sideltsev took 5 of 7
S5Sideltsev1Dubinin3n = 4Dubinin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSideltsevDubininS − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.638.0+0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSideltsevDubininBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 434 vs 214 / 43758.5%49%254 / 434 vs 214 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DubininSideltsev 2.20/Dubinin 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Dubinin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dubinin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 16:30S. Sideltsev2679100I. Dubinin341111123
LSep 7 · 17:08S. Sideltsev2510960I. Dubinin341211113
LSep 7 · 12:00S. Sideltsev4591111682I. Dubinin42114511113
LAug 30 · 15:00S. Sideltsev41111031162I. Dubinin45812113113
WAug 24 · 16:00S. Sideltsev351111133I. Dubinin2687110
WAug 6 · 13:00S. Sideltsev43101111113I. Dubinin34129491
WAug 4 · 15:00S. Sideltsev50891111113I. Dubinin4011116392
LJul 18 · 12:30S. Sideltsev3961211642I. Dubinin511110811113
WJul 5 · 17:34S. Sideltsev4314711113I. Dubinin371211951
WJul 5 · 16:30S. Sideltsev3911115123I. Dubinin379711101
S. Sideltsev10
WSep 30 · 12:00S. Sideltsev1.501171011113R. Hryhoriev2.5061112882WSep 28 · 16:58Y. Zvolynskyi3.0011112101S. Sideltsev1.3651114123LSep 28 · 16:30I. Dubinin1.731111123S. Sideltsev2.0079100WSep 28 · 15:00S. Sideltsev1.401416113Y. Zvolynskyi2.75121480WSep 28 · 13:30S. Sideltsev1.33913911113I. Sorochan3.25111111732LSep 28 · 12:00S. Sideltsev1.506111091V. Simchuk2.5011912113WSep 24 · 10:08S. Sideltsev1.441311113I. Sorochan2.6311470WSep 24 · 09:00S. Sideltsev1.5711911113M. Zavoloka2.25111951LSep 24 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi1.44811111113S. Sideltsev2.6311113992LSep 24 · 07:00I. Sorochan3.4071111133S. Sideltsev1.301197111
I. Dubinin10
WSep 30 · 14:30I. Dubinin1.73101111113R. Hryhoriev2.00126861WSep 30 · 12:30I. Dubinin3.251111133P. Kolesnik1.3399110LSep 28 · 17:28V. Simchuk1.6112101110113I. Dubinin2.20101211292WSep 28 · 16:30I. Dubinin1.731111123S. Sideltsev2.0079100WSep 28 · 15:30I. Dubinin1.6711811113I. Sorochan2.10911981WSep 28 · 14:00I. Dubinin1.401111113Y. Zvolynskyi2.757670LSep 28 · 13:00I. Dubinin2.0012911372V. Simchuk1.731011911113WSep 19 · 17:04I. Dubinin2.7511911113D. Tsys1.40611661WSep 19 · 16:00I. Dubinin3.5011119113O. Torianyk1.28971141WSep 19 · 15:00D. Tsys1.2881111762I. Dubinin3.5011751193
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