TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Dvorak vs Jiri Cerny 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111315114116611
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:26 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Cerny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Jiri Cerny below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Jiri Cerny at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 10–18 Jiri Cerny Milan Dvorak has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Dvorak beat Cerny 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:26What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-18 in 28
Cerny
Correct
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1543 vs Cerny 1508
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 100% vs Cerny 60%
Dvorak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 90% vs Cerny 60%
Dvorak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +7 · Cerny +2
Dvorak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Cerny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.91 / Cerny 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cerny)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13218324
Dvorak1.91
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 36 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Cerny1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 23 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it61% 17 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak5wins
AwayCerny5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak83.3%5 of 6
AwayCerny100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak6Cerny4n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S2Dvorak7Cerny3n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S3Dvorak3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S4Dvorak3Cerny4n = 7Cerny took 4 of 7
S5Dvorak2Cerny2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakCernyD − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.639.1+2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 344 vs 77 / 15948.6%48.4%167 / 344 vs 77 / 159Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernyDvorak 1.91/Cerny 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 14:55M. Dvorak48111169113J. Cerny4398111142
LSep 21 · 14:20M. Dvorak38119991J. Cerny3961111113
LAug 18 · 14:55M. Dvorak4181271132J. Cerny481110115113
WAug 3 · 17:59M. Dvorak4511115183J. Cerny448911161
LAug 3 · 16:55M. Dvorak29910100J. Cerny351112123
WJul 29 · 15:20M. Dvorak331111113J. Cerny154830
WJun 29 · 15:55M. Dvorak51111199113J. Cerny4195111152
LJun 24 · 16:50M. Dvorak49771111132J. Cerny54111198153
LJun 15 · 17:50M. Dvorak48923881J. Cerny54112111113
WJun 15 · 14:20M. Dvorak341111123J. Cerny1844100
M. Dvorak10
WSep 29 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.73115117113Z. Zahradka2.0031151172WSep 29 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.571111113D. Tichy2.257730WSep 29 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.91111169113J. Cerny1.8098111142WSep 24 · 17:55M. Dvorak1.851211113Z. Zahradka1.8510730WSep 24 · 16:50P. Moravec1.6711812752M. Dvorak2.108111011113WSep 24 · 15:50M. Dvorak1.911111113J. Hendrych1.802530WSep 24 · 14:20Z. Zahradka1.8311591682M. Dvorak1.832111114113LSep 21 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.91113114113M. Dvorak1.8091161172WSep 21 · 16:50J. Dvorak1.804119101M. Dvorak1.9111511123WSep 21 · 15:50M. Dvorak1.8371111113D. Tichy1.83114691
J. Cerny10
WSep 29 · 17:25D. Tichy2.632411121J. Cerny1.4411113143WSep 29 · 16:25J. Cerny1.57116711113Z. Zahradka2.2581111782LSep 29 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.91111169113J. Cerny1.8098111142WSep 26 · 14:02J. Cerny1.801412133D. Sochor1.901210110LSep 26 · 12:55A. Langer1.911111113J. Cerny1.809570LSep 26 · 12:25M. Sulc1.6112119113J. Cerny2.201061141WSep 26 · 11:25J. Cerny1.5711119143D. Sochor2.259911121WSep 21 · 17:29J. Cerny1.36111186113D. Tichy3.0098111142WSep 21 · 16:20J. Cerny1.801111113D. Tichy1.916960LSep 21 · 15:20J. Cerny1.83311641J. Dvorak1.8311211113
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