TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Cerny vs David Sochor 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
141212101311––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingJiri Cerny above · David Sochor below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-11
Point 71 set 3, 12-11
71 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jiri Cerny 1–4 David Sochor Jiri Cerny has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Cerny beat Sochor 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sochor form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.80 / Sochor 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cerny)+2.6pp
TT Cup · #13200581
Cerny1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 23 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it59% 16 of 27
Sochor1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 17 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeCerny1wins
AwaySochor4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderSochor leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySochor100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny2Sochor3n = 5Sochor took 3 of 5
S2Cerny1Sochor4n = 5Sochor took 4 of 5
S3Cerny3Sochor2n = 5Cerny took 3 of 5
S4Cerny1Sochor3n = 4Sochor took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricCernySochorC − SBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match36.041.4−5.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernySochorBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 155 vs 94 / 23147.7%40.7%74 / 155 vs 94 / 231Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.80/Sochor 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 26 · 11:25J. Cerny4511119143D. Sochor419911121
LNov 3 · 16:40J. Cerny209650D. Sochor331111113
LMay 26 · 18:30J. Cerny4211511872D. Sochor50811911113
LMay 26 · 17:25J. Cerny399131161D. Sochor3911152113
LMay 19 · 14:55J. Cerny34671381D. Sochor44111111113
J. Cerny10
LSep 26 · 12:55A. Langer1.911111113J. Cerny1.809570LSep 26 · 12:25M. Sulc1.6112119113J. Cerny2.201061141WSep 26 · 11:25J. Cerny1.5711119143D. Sochor2.259911121WSep 21 · 17:29J. Cerny1.36111186113D. Tichy3.0098111142WSep 21 · 16:20J. Cerny1.801111113D. Tichy1.916960LSep 21 · 15:20J. Cerny1.83311641J. Dvorak1.8311211113WSep 21 · 14:20J. Cerny1.8061111113M. Dvorak1.91119991WSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WSep 1 · 00:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151WAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590
D. Sochor10
LSep 26 · 13:25D. Sochor2.756350M. Sulc1.401111113WSep 26 · 11:55A. Langer1.73111212682D. Sochor2.008141011113LSep 26 · 11:25J. Cerny1.5711119143D. Sochor2.259911121WSep 25 · 17:31D. Sochor3.7541111123Z. Zahradka1.251197101LSep 25 · 16:50P. Moravec1.53311813113D. Sochor2.38115111172LSep 25 · 15:50D. Sochor1.91112951J. Hendrych1.8081111113WSep 25 · 14:20Z. Zahradka1.50131191142D. Sochor2.50156116113LSep 21 · 10:45J. Vonasek1.731111133D. Sochor2.0065110WSep 21 · 08:55A. Langer1.50105100D. Sochor2.501211123LSep 21 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.9161115113D. Sochor1.801121381
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