TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Saleny vs Marcel Pikous 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711118511113611
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:26 and never touched: 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timePetr Saleny to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Saleny above · Marcel Pikous below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 84 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Petr Saleny at 62.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Petr Saleny 12–4 Marcel Pikous Marcel Pikous has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Saleny beat Pikous 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:26What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Saleny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Saleny
Wrong
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Saleny 1667 vs Pikous 1609
Saleny
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Saleny 40% vs Pikous 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Saleny 40% vs Pikous 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Saleny -1 · Pikous +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Saleny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Saleny form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSaleny 1.50 / Pikous 2.40
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Saleny)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13218076
Saleny1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 58 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it82% 44 of 54
Pikous2.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 44 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back26% 14 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSaleny8wins
AwayPikous2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSaleny leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSaleny85.7%6 of 7
AwayPikous33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Saleny7Pikous3n = 10Saleny took 7 of 10
S2Saleny8Pikous2n = 10Saleny took 8 of 10
S3Saleny4Pikous6n = 10Pikous took 6 of 10
S4Saleny5Pikous4n = 9Saleny took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSalenyPikousS − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.733.8+6.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalenyPikousBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 410 vs 368 / 69950.7%52.7%208 / 410 vs 368 / 699Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SalenySaleny 1.50/Pikous 2.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.7%
Saleny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 15:30P. Saleny4111118113M. Pikous31771161
WSep 22 · 15:00P. Saleny531111119113M. Pikous4046131162
LMay 14 · 16:59P. Saleny291161021M. Pikous4171112113
WMay 14 · 14:00P. Saleny46111113113M. Pikous371351181
WMay 11 · 15:00P. Saleny52141179113M. Pikous47127111162
WApr 23 · 20:00P. Saleny331111113M. Pikous173950
WApr 13 · 15:00P. Saleny4011117113M. Pikous22331151
WMar 19 · 19:30P. Saleny4181111113M. Pikous32119571
WMar 9 · 21:00P. Saleny4011117113M. Pikous31971141
LFeb 9 · 17:00P. Saleny327101141M. Pikous4011126113
P. Saleny10
LSep 29 · 16:30J. Zuzanek2.3811911113P. Saleny1.53911691WSep 29 · 15:30P. Saleny1.5311118113M. Pikous2.38771161WSep 29 · 14:30M. Wagner1.8311914772P. Saleny1.839111211113LSep 22 · 20:58V. Nohejl1.401111113P. Saleny2.756130LSep 22 · 20:30P. Saleny2.7510640V. Nohejl1.401211113LSep 22 · 19:00P. Saleny1.838111191O. Cmerda1.8311138113LSep 22 · 18:00R. Urbaniec1.4411511113P. Saleny2.63911851WSep 22 · 16:58P. Saleny3.251211133V. Nohejl1.33104110LSep 22 · 16:00V. Nohejl1.361411113P. Saleny3.0012960WSep 22 · 15:00M. Pikous2.2046131162P. Saleny1.611111119113
M. Pikous10
WSep 29 · 16:00M. Pikous1.676121111113M. Wagner2.1011147692LSep 29 · 15:30P. Saleny1.5311118113M. Pikous2.38771161WSep 29 · 14:30M. Pikous1.3615611113J. Zuzanek3.001311541LSep 28 · 16:58J. Tazler1.6713117113M. Pikous2.101161121LSep 28 · 16:00M. Pikous1.8314760J. Tazler1.831611113WSep 28 · 15:30M. Regner2.207570M. Pikous1.611111113LSep 28 · 14:00M. Pikous1.916390J. Louda1.801111113WSep 28 · 02:58M. Pikous2.001111123J. Louda1.7375100WSep 28 · 02:30M. Pikous2.0011711113J. Louda1.73411591LSep 22 · 15:00M. Pikous2.2046131162P. Saleny1.611111119113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.