TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Regner vs Marcel Pikous 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511711––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:25 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMarcel Pikous to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Marcel Pikous below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Marcel Pikous at 57.7%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 32–32 Marcel Pikous Dead even across their 64 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:25What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pikous
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-32 in 64
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1601 vs Pikous 1606
Pikous
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 20% vs Pikous 60%
Pikous
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 40% vs Pikous 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +1 · Pikous -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Pikous) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.20 / Pikous 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Pikous)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13206820
Regner2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 111 of 246
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 70
Pikous1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 104 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it90% 54 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it78% 75 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner4wins
AwayPikous6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPikous leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegnern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPikous62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner2Pikous8n = 10Pikous took 8 of 10
S2Regner6Pikous4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S3Regner3Pikous7n = 10Pikous took 7 of 10
S4Regner3Pikous3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerPikousR − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.736.6−3.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerPikousBasisWin rate · lifetime516 / 1064 vs 365 / 69348.5%52.7%516 / 1064 vs 365 / 693Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PikousRegner 2.20/Pikous 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 22:00M. Regner2711790M. Pikous351311113
WSep 6 · 02:59M. Regner331111113M. Pikous228860
LSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner30115861M. Pikous4181111113
LAug 16 · 01:30M. Regner32812571M. Pikous43111011113
LAug 9 · 00:30M. Regner238960M. Pikous331111113
LAug 6 · 01:30M. Regner194870M. Pikous331111113
LAug 4 · 22:30M. Regner36714691M. Pikous45111211113
WAug 3 · 02:30M. Regner4181111113M. Pikous26114561
WJul 30 · 23:30M. Regner4161311113M. Pikous401111991
WJul 27 · 23:00M. Regner45312811113M. Pikous48111011972
M. Regner10
WSep 28 · 16:30J. Louda1.838470M. Regner1.831111113WSep 28 · 14:30J. Tazler1.67101161172M. Regner2.10129116113LSep 27 · 02:00M. Klement1.8311511113M. Regner1.83711881LSep 27 · 00:30M. Regner1.80116981J. Tazler1.9181111113LSep 26 · 23:00M. Regner2.50815981T. Franek1.50111311113LSep 26 · 22:00M. Skakal1.571511113M. Regner2.2513580LSep 26 · 13:30M. Regner1.83811851M. Sopko1.8311911113WSep 26 · 12:30M. Regner1.5311118113M. Sopko2.38881161LSep 26 · 11:00M. Regner1.8386141172J. Zuzanek1.831111129113WSep 26 · 10:00J. Tazler1.80911111082M. Regner1.91118912113
M. Pikous10
LSep 28 · 16:00M. Pikous1.8314760J. Tazler1.831611113LSep 28 · 14:00M. Pikous1.916390J. Louda1.801111113WSep 28 · 02:58M. Pikous2.001111123J. Louda1.7375100WSep 28 · 02:30M. Pikous2.0011711113J. Louda1.73411591LSep 28 · 01:30P. Pycha2.10111168113M. Pikous1.6776111172WSep 28 · 00:00M. Pikous1.2511137113S. Kadavy3.756111141LSep 27 · 23:00K. Schopf1.8311119163M. Pikous1.835711141LSep 27 · 21:30V. Vejvoda2.75111110133M. Pikous1.402512111WSep 27 · 20:00M. Pikous1.4471111113V. Vejvoda2.63117481WSep 27 · 19:30M. Sychra2.2061181482M. Pikous1.611181112113
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