TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Regner vs Jiri Louda 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111311911118711
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Regner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 98 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Michal Regner at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 72–63 Jiri Louda Jiri Louda has won 63 of their 135 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Regner beat Louda 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:25What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Louda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
72-63 in 135
Regner
Wrong
gap of 9 in 135, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1600 vs Louda 1559
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 40% vs Louda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 30% vs Louda 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +1 · Louda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Regner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Louda form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.83 / Louda 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Regner)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13212596
Regner1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Louda1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner5wins
AwayLouda5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner83.3%5 of 6
AwayLouda100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner6Louda4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S2Regner5Louda5n = 10split evenly
S3Regner5Louda5n = 10split evenly
S4Regner3Louda3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerLoudaR − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.534.6−0.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime516 / 1064 vs 611 / 119748.5%51%516 / 1064 vs 611 / 1197Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerRegner 1.83/Louda 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Louda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 16:30M. Regner331111113J. Louda198470
LSep 13 · 03:00M. Regner2010280J. Louda341211113
WSep 12 · 22:00M. Regner4211711133J. Louda366118111
WSep 11 · 00:30M. Regner3811511113J. Louda27311761
LAug 15 · 22:30M. Regner31951161J. Louda3711114113
LAug 6 · 00:30M. Regner2641570J. Louda391117113
WAug 2 · 23:00M. Regner331111113J. Louda258890
LAug 2 · 11:00M. Regner32511971J. Louda4211911113
LAug 1 · 07:30M. Regner4211116862J. Louda46671111113
WJul 30 · 22:00M. Regner48111115113J. Louda41871791
M. Regner10
WSep 28 · 16:30J. Louda1.838470M. Regner1.831111113LSep 28 · 15:30M. Regner2.207570M. Pikous1.611111113WSep 28 · 14:30J. Tazler1.67101161172M. Regner2.10129116113LSep 27 · 02:00M. Klement1.8311511113M. Regner1.83711881LSep 27 · 00:30M. Regner1.80116981J. Tazler1.9181111113LSep 26 · 23:00M. Regner2.50815981T. Franek1.50111311113LSep 26 · 22:00M. Skakal1.571511113M. Regner2.2513580LSep 26 · 13:30M. Regner1.83811851M. Sopko1.8311911113WSep 26 · 12:30M. Regner1.5311118113M. Sopko2.38881161LSep 26 · 11:00M. Regner1.8386141172J. Zuzanek1.831111129113
J. Louda10
LSep 28 · 16:30J. Louda1.838470M. Regner1.831111113WSep 28 · 15:00J. Louda1.67114511123J. Tazler2.10811119102WSep 28 · 14:00M. Pikous1.916390J. Louda1.801111113LSep 28 · 02:58M. Pikous2.001111123J. Louda1.7375100LSep 28 · 02:30M. Pikous2.0011711113J. Louda1.73411591WSep 28 · 01:00S. Kadavy2.2010450J. Louda1.611211113LSep 27 · 23:30J. Louda1.28911111092P. Pycha3.50118712113LSep 27 · 22:00J. Louda1.834111031K. Schopf1.8311712113LSep 26 · 08:59J. Louda1.5311811942J. Zuzanek2.38411711113LSep 26 · 08:30J. Louda1.807630M. Sopko1.911111113
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